New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Chinese Price Data Dampen Market Risk Aversion
April 11, 2016
Chinese share prices recovered 1.6% after a tough week. Comex gold advanced 0.7% to $1,249.87, near a three-week high. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading at $39.55 per barrel, just a tad south of the $40 threshold. The 10-year British gilt yield rose four basis points to 1.40%. German bunds and Japanese JGBs are […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Yen
April 9, 2016
From lows of 121.7 per dollar and 132.3 per euro on January 29, the Japanese yen appreciated 13.0% and 8.0%, respectively, over the ensuing 9-1/2 weeks to highs last Thursday of 107.7 and 122.6. The onset of this rally paradoxically coincided with the announced introduction of a negative interest rate by the Bank of Japan […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
April 8, 2016
Central Banking: Interest rate policy meetings in Canada, the U.K., Singapore, Peru, and Chile. Fed Beige Book gets published, and Powell, Evans, Williams and Lockhart are some of the Fed officials who will be speaking in public. IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings: April 15-17 in Washington. The World Economic Update will be released on Tuesday, and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Oil Rebounds and Another Warning against Rapid Yen Swings
April 8, 2016
West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 3.5% to $37.56 per barrel, taking some shine of the risk averse mood of recent sessions. There’s some hope that a scheduled OPEC meeting later this month could produce an accord with Russia to limit production. Share prices in Europe have rebounded 3.2% in Italy, 1.6% in Greece, 1.3% […] More
Larry's Blog
Experiential Qualification to be a U.S. President
April 7, 2016
A headline in today’s U.S. political news caught my eye. Bernie Sanders called Hillary Clinton unqualified to be president. In fact, a tradition was established in the early days of the Republic that identified the job of Secretary of State has the most ideally suitable experience for an aspiring president. Five of the first eight […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Serbia
April 7, 2016
The statement released by the central bank executive board after it left the 4.25% key interest rate as is for a second straight time makes the same points mentioned in the prior statement. The “cautious” current policy stance is projected to promote gradual economic recovery and a moderate return of inflation, which should return to […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
High-Flying Yen
April 7, 2016
The yen climbed to new highs for the move of 108.02 per dollar and 123.12 per euro. The yen overnight gained 1.3% on balance against the U.S. currency despite yesterday’s hint from a Ministry of Finance official that intervention is possible. Today, Prime Minister Abe seemed to undermine that threat, saying that countries should not […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Poland: No Policy Change
April 6, 2016
Thirteen months have elapsed since the second of two 50-basis point cuts in the central bank’s reference interest rate, which has been at 1.5% and flanked by a 2.5% Lombard rate and a 0.5% deposit rate. A sstatement released after this month’s meeting of the Monetary Council expresses satisfaction with the current stance, which “is […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Some Better PMI Results but Investor Mood Stays Guarded
April 6, 2016
Stocks in the Pacific Rim fell 1.7% in Taiwan and 0.1% in Japan and China but rose 0.4% in Australia, South Korea and Singapore. Share prices in Europe are mixed, with rises of 0.6% in the U.K. and Switzerland, 0.7% in Italy and 0.3% in France and Spain but drops of 0.7% in Greece and […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. and Eurozone Service Sector PMIs in March
April 5, 2016
The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index climbed 1.1 points in March, while Euroland’s counterpart services PMI edged 0.2 points lower. In conjunction with an equally U.S.-advantageous shift in manufacturing PMI measures, the arithmetic sum of the two sets of PMI differentials (U.S. minus Eurozone) swung to +1.6 — a 7-month peak — from -1.6 in February […] More
