Deeper Analysis
March and the First Quarter in Figures
March 31, 2015
Sovereign debt yields fell significantly during the first quarter of 2015. In Switzerland’s case, so did short-term interest rates. The dollar extended its rise against the euro, sterling, and commodity-sensitive monies, was steady against the yen and yuan, and fell against the Swiss franc despite a 1.9% rise in March against that currency. Dollar strength […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Comments on the Dollar’s Performance in the First Quarter
March 31, 2015
The dollar’s rise this quarter against the euro was historic. Appreciation at this writing stands at 12.6%, which is a larger move, up or down, than in any other first quarter since the euro was created at the start of 1999. The past quarter’s gain represents four-fifths of the $1.3993 to $1.2097 high-low spread in […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Romania
March 31, 2015
Romania’s central bank Board today cut its policy interest rate to 2.0% from 2.25%. This was the third straight monthly reduction and the sixth such cut in the last eight months. The rate at end-2008 was 10.25% but cut by 400 basis points in 2009-10, 100 bps in 2011-12, 125 bps in 2013, 125 bps […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Up, Oil and European Equities Down on Final Day of the Quarter
March 31, 2015
The dollar rose overnight by 0.8% against the euro, 0.7% versus the Australian dollar, 0.6% relative to the loonie and Swiss franc, 0.3% vis-a-vis the kiwi and 0.1% against the yuan and sterling. But the U.S. currency edged 0.1% lower versus the yen. Oil sank 2.2% to $47.62 per barrel. Comex gold is steady at […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Drop in Commodity Prices
March 30, 2015
There’s been a decline in oil and metal prices to start the bridging week between the first and second quarters of 2015. WTI oil lost 1.9% to $47.96, and Comex gold is 1.1% lower at $1,187.20 per ounce. Stocks and the dollar, on the other hand, have strengthened. The bid tone in share prices was […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
March 27, 2015
Central Bank Scene: National Bank of Romania interest rate policy meeting. Fisher, Kocherlakota, Lockhart, Lacker and Williams of the Fed speak publicly. Holiday: Good Friday on April 3rd affects most of Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and parts of the United States. Japan’s fiscal year ends on Wednesday. Clocks Changed: European countries moving clocks forward […] More
Larry's Blog
U.S. Economic Growth Over the Past Ten Years
March 27, 2015
While faster than growth in Japan and the eurozone, U.S. growth during the past decade was considerably slower than in the prior ten-year intervals. Nine consecutive calendar years have now passed without any showing average real GDP growth of as much as 3.0%. The averages in the most recent three years — 2.3% in 2012, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Less Volatility Than Earlier in the Week
March 27, 2015
The dollar rose overnight by 0.5% versus the euro, 0.4% against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, 0.3% relative to the Swiss franc, 0.2% vis-a-vis the loonie and 0.1% against the yuan and yen but slipped 0.2 against sterling. Concern has subsided about the impact on oil prices from the air strike on Yemen. West […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Mexico
March 26, 2015
Monetary easing in Mexico since 2009 has happened in two waves. In each of the first seven months of that year, there was a rate cut, the total of which added up to 375 basis points, cutting the main interest rate to 4.5% from 8.25%. The second wave of easing began with a 50-basis point […] More
Central Bank Watch
South African Reserve Bank Keeps Policy Stance Paused
March 26, 2015
It doesn’t happen often that a central bank raises projected and above-target inflation for the coming two years yet leaves its policy interest rate unchanged. Yet that is what the South African Reserve Bank just did. Inflation is forecast at 4.8% in 2015 (a whole percentage point higher than the previous estimate) and an average […] More
