Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
February 24, 2012
Central banks hold interest rate policy meetings next week in The Philippines, Hungary and Israel. G20 finance ministers and central bankers are meeting this weekend in Mexico City, and an EU summit in Brussels commences on Thursday. The Fed releases its Beige Book on Wednesday, and numerous Fed officials are scheduled to speak publicly during […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Euro Surprising the Pessimists
February 24, 2012
The better recent performance of the euro is subject to varying interpretations. The EUR/USD is the best currency-against-currency barometer of sentiment toward the U.S. economy and dollar, so euro appreciation can simply reflect a vote of lessening confidence in the United States. Or because the dollar is the most favored safe haven in the family […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meeting in Mexico City
February 24, 2012
It’s been a decent Friday. In signs of a risk-on trading sentiment, share prices are higher. Oil is up, and the yen and dollar is down. Revised German and British GDP data provided few surprises. An important meeting of Group of 20 officials begins today. The dollar rose to as high as JPY 80.67, highest […] More
Deeper Analysis
EU Commission Publishes Weaker Real Growth Projections
February 23, 2012
Real GDP in the euro area is now expected to contract this year by 0.3%, a 0.8 percentage point downward revision from what the EU Commission was predicting three months ago. The dispersion of likely results among members is very wide. Among peripherals that have received outside aid, GDP is expected to fall by 4.4% […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Euro Sovereign Debt Concerns Continue to Weigh on Market Sentiment
February 23, 2012
The Greek bailout will only be as good as the assumptions about economic growth that underlie it, and those took a new hit today. The EU revised projected GDP growth in 2012 downward to minus 0.3% from a forecast of 0.5% made in November. For individual countries using the euro, the EU projects GDP contractions […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. Housing and Labor Markets: Progress Report
February 22, 2012
A collapse of the U.S. housing market triggered the Great Recession, and the labor market bore a heavy brunt of the punishing downturn. A full recovery awaits a better sense of normalcy in both areas. And while progress is being made, both markets are closer to their troughs than to pre-recession highs. First let’s look […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Greek Misgivings Linger
February 22, 2012
Post-Greek deal relief has been disappointedly muted. The dollar is stronger. Long-term gilt and bund yields are softer. Commodities and share prices are mostly down. Investors don’t believe Greece will meet its deficit-reduction targets. Elevated oil prices and softer-than-predicted European preliminary purchasing manager survey readings are two other concerns. The dollar strengthened overnight by 0.7% […] More
Central Bank Watch
Turkish Central Bank Tweaks Stance for First Time since October
February 21, 2012
The main monetary policy rate, the one-week repo, was left at 5.75%, its level since a 50-basis point cut last August. The overnight borrowing rate of 5.0% since a 350-bp hike after the August meeting also was not changed. However, the overnight lending rate was cut to 11.5% from 12.5%, thus narrowing the spread against […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Second Greek Bailout Agreed and Met with Market Skepticism
February 21, 2012
EU finance ministers in Brussels reached agreement on a Greek bailout in the wee early hours of Tuesday. EUR/USD initially advanced to $1.3294 but settled back to $1.3222 currently, a net overnight loss of 0.2% for the common currency. The dollar also has climbed 0.9% against the Australian dollar, 0.6% versus the kiwi, 0.3% relative […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Hopeful about Eurogroup Meeting in Brussels
February 20, 2012
European officials are said to be near agreeing on a EUR 130 billion Greek bailout. Their meeting starts at 14:00 GMT. Greek Finance Minister Venizelos asserted that all conditions for aid have been met by his country. China’s Vice President and front-contender to be the next leader expressed a willingness to support the euro. In […] More
