Deeper Analysis
Upbeat Japanese Corporate Mood Before the Earthquake
March 31, 2011
11,101 companies participated in the latest quarterly survey by Japan’s central bank. In the table below which documents the evolution of results, abbreviations used in the first four columns of data stand for big manufacturers (Bm), big non-manufacturer (Bnm), small manufacturers (Sm) and small non-manufacturers (Smn). Where no “a” or “f” suffix is shown after […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Dollar’s Down…. So What Else is New?
March 31, 2011
It’s been a poor quarter for the dollar. The dollar accrued losses of 5.5% against the euro, 2.69% against sterling, 2.7% relative to the Canadian dollar, 1.4% against the Swiss franc, 0.8% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar and 0.6% against the yuan. The currencies of Japan and New Zealand netted gains against the dollar, but each […] More
Deeper Analysis
March and First Quarter in Figures
March 31, 2011
Long-term interest rates rose sharply in the first quarter. Except in Germany’s case, the bulk of the increase occurred in the first two months of the quarter. Short-term rates hardly changed in March. The dollar felll by varying amounts in the first quarter against the euro, Swiss franc, pound sterling, Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar and […] More
Central Bank Watch
Romanian Monetary Policy Rate to Remain at 6.25%
March 31, 2011
Officials at the National Bank of Romania left their key interest rate 6.25%, extending the period of time at that level to at least twelve months. From a peak of 10.25%, the rate was cut five times in 2009 by a total of 225 basis points and four more time last year (but not after […] More
Central Bank Watch
A Fourth Discount Rate in Taiwan as Normalization Continues
March 31, 2011
Taiwan’s central bank Policy Board has raised key interest rates by 12.5 basis points just as it did at the end of third and fourth quarters of 2010. An initial increase was undertaken in early June of last year. Today’s action leaves the discount rate at 1.75% versus a low of 1.25% before this normalization […] More
Deeper Analysis
Improving Trends in Canadian GDP and U.S. Jobless Insurance Claims
March 31, 2011
Monthly Canadian GDP figures, calculated from the supply side, showed a second straight brisk rise of 0.5% in January, resulting in a three-month annualized 5.7% rate of rise compared to a 2.0% growth rate in August-October. Industrial production rose 1.3% on month and 6.9% on year in January, with factory output increasing by 2.8% on […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Weaker Dollar at End-Quarter
March 31, 2011
The dollar fell overnight by 0.6% against the euro, 0.4% versus the Swiss franc, 0.2% against the Canadian dollar, and 0.1% relative to the yen, kiwi, Aussie dollar, yuan, and sterling. The dollar has lost 5.8% against the euro since the end of 2010. Most Asian equities rose overnight, with gains of 1.0% in Indonesia, […] More
Deeper Analysis
Euroland Data Point to ECB Rate Hike a Week from Tomorrow
March 30, 2011
The last rate hike at the European Central Bank was by 25 basis points in July 2008 and shrouded in controversy, coming just over two months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered an intensifying global recession. The refinancing rate has been at 1.0% since May 2009, some 325 basis points lower than the prior […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Equities Higher
March 30, 2011
Asian and European stocks made solid gains as quarter-end nears and despite S&P credit rating downgrades of Greece and Portugal. The yen is trading heavily with a 0.8% decline to 83.11 per dollar. The U.S. currency otherwise lost 0.7% against the Australian dollar, 0.4% versus the Canadian dollar, and 0.3% against the kiwi and sterling. […] More
Larry's Blog
The Last U.S. Federal Government Shutdown
March 29, 2011
A budgetary impasse between democrats and republicans caused the suspension of non-essential federal services during November 14-19, 1995 and from December 16, 1995 to January 6, 1996. The U.S. economy was growing then at a very similar pace to now. GDP advanced 2.8% at an annualized rate in both the final quarter of 1995 and […] More
