Upbeat Japanese Corporate Mood Before the Earthquake
March 31, 2011
11,101 companies participated in the latest quarterly survey by Japan’s central bank. In the table below which documents the evolution of results, abbreviations used in the first four columns of data stand for big manufacturers (Bm), big non-manufacturer (Bnm), small manufacturers (Sm) and small non-manufacturers (Smn). Where no “a” or “f” suffix is shown after the date of the survey, the figures are actual results. The bottom three rows are expected March 2011 results projected in the December 2010 survey (Mar 2010f), the actual results of the March 2011 survey reported today (Mar 2011a), and what respondents in the latest survey think the results will be in the next survey to be taken in June 2011. The values in this table are diffusion indices representing the percent of companies where conditions are favorable minus the percent claiming conditions to be unfavorable and omitting any firms where conditions have been neutral. When the diffusion index is positive, there is more optimism than pessimism.
Each of the five classes of respondents in the table below had a better reading in March than December and a much better score than had been anticipated three months earlier. Alas, this upbeat survey is already dated by the Sendai earthquake. Reminiscent of the December survey whose results turned out to also be better than the previous survey readings but left companies still expecting a turn for the worse, the participants in this latest March survey are projected weaker numbers in June than now. Given the extensive earthquake damage — loss of life, destroyed necessities for sustaining life and production, and the shock to confidence from the leaking nuclear reactor — the pessimism about the future is well grounded this time.
This quarter’s survey includes the first appearance of fiscal 2011 projections for sales, profits and investment. Fiscal 2011 began with the rising sun this Friday in Japan. For all reporting firms, sales are expected to rise 1.2%, down from 4.3% in fiscal 2010. Profits, which soared 30.6% last fiscal year, are seen increasing just 1.8% in FY11. Planned investment is projected to drop 3.7% in the new year.
| Bm | Bnm | Sm | Snm | All | |
| Dec 1998 | -49 | -39 | -56 | -43 | |
| Dec 1999 | -17 | -19 | -32 | -28 | |
| Dec 2000 | 10 | -10 | -16 | -23 | |
| Dec 2001 | -38 | -22 | -49 | -39 | -40 |
| Dec 2002 | -9 | -16 | -33 | -36 | -28 |
| Dec 2003 | 11 | -9 | -13 | -28 | -15 |
| Dec 2004 | 22 | 11 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| Dec 2005 | 21 | 17 | 7 | -17 | 5 |
| Dec 2006 | 25 | 22 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
| Dec 2007 | 19 | 16 | 2 | -12 | 2 |
| Mar 2008 | 11 | 12 | -6 | -15 | -4 |
| Jun 2008 | 5 | 10 | -10 | -20 | -7 |
| Sep 2008 | -3 | 1 | -17 | -24 | -14 |
| Dec 2008 | -24 | -9 | -29 | -29 | -24 |
| Mar 2009 | -58 | -31 | -57 | -42 | -46 |
| Jun 2009 | -48 | -29 | -57 | -44 | -45 |
| Sep 2009 | -33 | -24 | -52 | -39 | -38 |
| Dec 2009 | -25 | -21 | -41 | -34 | -31 |
| Mar 2010 | -14 | -14 | -30 | -31 | -24 |
| Jun 2010 | 1 | -5 | -18 | -26 | -15 |
| Sep 2010 | 8 | 2 | -14 | -21 | -10 |
| Dec 2010f | -1 | -2 | -22 | -29 | -17 |
| Dec 2010a | 5 | 1 | -12 | -22 | -11 |
| Mar 2011f | -2 | -1 | -23 | -29 | -18 |
| Mar 2011a | 6 | 3 | -10 | -19 | -9 |
| June 2011f | 2 | -1 | -16 | -27 | -14 |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Japanese Tankan survey
ShareThis
