Vital Market Signs at Selected Previous FOMC Meetings

June 25, 2008

  EUR/USD USD/JPY 10Y, % DJIA Oil, %
6/30/2004 1.2173 109.44 4.63 10396 37.95
6/29/2006 1.2527 116.07 5.20 11077 73.41
8/7/2007 1.3749 118.55 4.73 13510 72.27
12/11/2007 1.4682 111.49 4.11 13645 89.78
1/30/2008 1.4792 107.31 3.70 12454 91.70
3/18/2008 1.5786 98.73 3.41 12257 107.53
4/30/2008 1.5562 104.58 3.83 12953 114.54
6/25/2008 1.5579 107.98 4.12 11807 136.80

 

Since the last FOMC meeting on April 30th, the dollar has responded positively to an escalated verbal defense of its value and to shifting expectations about the next direction in Fed policy.  The U.S. currency is off only 0.1% against the euro and 3.3% higher against the yen.  The yield on ten-year Treasury notes is likewise 29 basis points higher now than then, and the DOW has slumped over 1000 points and by 8.8%.  The biggest change is a further 19.4% leap in oil prices. which are also 89.3% above their level at the meeting in August 2007 when the global credit crunch began and 260.5% higher than in mid-2004.

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