Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Foreign Exchange Insights
May 30, 2008
The dollar continues to march inversely to the beat of oil prices. A sharp 4.7% advance in oil costs during the week to May 23rd had been associated with across-the-board dollar declines. Oil reversed course this past week, and the dollar followed. Both oil and the dollar are now near their levels of two weeks […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Developments Abroad
May 30, 2008
The dollar is mixed despite lower oil prices. There are dollar losses of 0.3% against the kiwi, 0.2% versus the Aussie dollar, and 0.1% against carry trade-financing currencies like the yen and Swiss franc. The Greenback has risen 0.4% against the C-dollar, 0.2% against sterling and 0.1% versus the euro. Oil fell 0.8% further to […] More
Larry's Blog
Give It Up, Scott
May 29, 2008
In the middle of a presidential election campaign, former White House press secretary Scott McClellan has released a tell-all highly critical expose about the administration for which he worked. Normally, that kind of revelation might be expected to be very damaging to the incumbent Party. Recall, for example, how a report just before the 1992 […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Developments Abroad
May 29, 2008
The dollar is stronger as markets look ahead to eventual Fed tightening, with gains to 0.7% against the Swiss franc, 0.5% against the euro, 0.4% versus the Aussie dollar, 0.3% against the yen, 0.2% relative to sterling, and 0.1% against the Canadian dollar. The Nikkei leaped 3.0%, and 10-year JGB yields advanced 5 bps to […] More
Currency Markets in the News
Euroland Rundown
May 28, 2008
Elevated inflation is spoiling consumer sentiment in Continental Europe. German consumer prices rose by a faster-than-forecast 0.6% in May. They rose 3.8% saar in the last three reported months and by 3.0% y/y, twice the 1.5% per annum pace in the six years between May 2001 and May 2007. The German PPI advanced 7.6% saar […] More
Currency Markets in the News
Confusion About Japanese Growth
May 28, 2008
Real GDP measures aggregate demand. Japan’s all-industry index calibrates aggregate supply. The two gauges should tell a similar story but aren’t doing so lately. GDP expanded 2.6% saar in 4Q07 and 3.3% in 1Q08. The all-industry index, in contrast, slipped 0.4% saar in the final quarter of 2007 and then slumped by 3.7% in 1Q08. […] More
Upward Rate Risks in Norway and Australia
May 28, 2008
Norway’s central bank, the Norges Bank, kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.5% after a policy meeting today. That’s right in the center of a 5-6% range that officials had expected to be observed during 1H08. A statement released today explained why there was no immediate follow-up to April’s 25-basis point tightening but reaffirmed that […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Developments Abroad
May 28, 2008
Oil prices fell another 1.6% overnight. At $126.78, such are now 6.2% below peak. Gold prices slumped 1.9% to a sub-$900 reading of $895.8/ounce. The dollar is mixed, advancing 0.4% against the yen and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc and C-dollar. The dollar is unchanged against the euro and A-dollar and off 0.1% against sterling. […] More
Currency Markets in the News
German Growth Deconstructed
May 27, 2008
Details of the 1.5% first-quarter jump in German real GDP (6.3% saar) were released today. With that spurt, on-year growth over the past eight quarters has averaged 2.9%. 2006 had been a stronger year than 2007, with faster growth in all four quarters than in the corresponding quarter of 2007. But that trend toward less […] More
Three Factions at the Bank of England
May 27, 2008
British monetary policy is decided by a committee of nine people, who as in many other G7 economies are challenged by weakening growth prospects as well as intensifying inflation. Of the last eight monthly policy meetings, only one resulted in a unanimous decision. Mr. Blanchflower was more dovish than the majority at the other seven […] More
