Archive for May 23rd, 2008

Larry's Blog

U.S. Jobless Claims on Sub-Recessionary Plateau

May 23, 2008

During previous U.S. recessions, new jobless claims have routinely surpassed 400,000 per week. They averaged 372.25K in the four weeks to May 17th, similar to means of 369.5K in the previous four weeks to April 19th and 374.75K during the four weeks to March 22nd. They may yet build up to a higher level, and […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Foreign Exchange Insights

May 23, 2008

The global economy needed this past week’s 5.6% additional rise in oil prices like a whole in the head. The threat of a recession induced by inflation creates a more difficult task for policymakers than a downturn caused by a banking crisis. By answering the first challenge, moveover, the Fed has little left in the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Developments Abroad

May 23, 2008

The dollar fell 0.5% against the yen and Aussie dollar. It’s down 0.2% against the Swissy and -0.1% relative to the kiwi but unchanged against the euro, sterling and yuan. Bond yields are sharply higher on inflation fears. Ten-year JGB yields hit a 9 month high and is up 4.5 bps net at 1.695%. Asian […] More