U.S. debt ceiling

Prices, Consumer Confidence, and Recessionary Worries

January 20, 2023

On this eve of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, investors are digesting the latest inflation data, perusing reports on consumer confidence, but also continuing to worry about the risk of recession to which many economists in both the private and public sectors ascribe better than even odds. The global economy is coming off a […] More

U.S. Debt Deal Still Eluding

October 14, 2013

Three markets are on holiday today, dampening activity. U.S.: Columbus Day (partial closure). Japan: Health Sports Day Canada: Thanksgiving A deal to extend the $16.7 trillion U.S. debt ceiling and avert a default was not finalized over the weekend despite promising signs on Thursday-Friday.  The government partial shutdown has begun a third week.  Debt ceiling […] More

How Will Markets React if the United States Government Defaults?

July 25, 2011

Nobody really knows the answer to the above question with certainty.  It’s a mystery. Governments that defaulted in the past have been punished but not with equal severity, and a U.S. default would contain many unique elements.  The United States is the world’s biggest economy.  The dollar dominates reserve asset portfolios and has no serious […] More