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New Overnight Developments Abroad – Daily Update

Dollar Rebounds on Fed Comment

November 14, 2022

Federal Reserve Governor Waller opined that financial markets had over-reacted to the lower-than-expected U.S. October CPI inflation data. The remark was predictable, since Fed officials for years have said that policy is not guided by single data points. Nonetheless, on a day with few data releases his comment has been the day’s leading financial market […] More

Post-CPI Equity Rally Gets Fresh Thrust from Chinese Covid Changes; DXY Has Dropped 5.4% Since Nov 3rd

November 11, 2022

On this Veteran’s Day holiday, U.S. banks will be closed, but the stock market is trading. U.S. equities had their biggest daily advance in over two years after Thursday’s CPI report, and stock futures this morning show a further 0.5% advance. Chinese officials, after initially denying rumors that a relaxation of the Zero Covid policy […] More

Data Release Menu Today Dominated by Inflation and Industrial Production

November 10, 2022

Ahead of the U.S. October consumer price data release, the dollar had risen overnight by 0.6% against the euro and 0.3% relative to the Swiss franc and Australian dollar. But drops of 0.4% against sterling and 0.2% versus the Japanese yen and Mexican peso held the weighted DXY dollar index’s gain to 0.3%. Ten-year sovereign […] More

The Morning After

November 9, 2022

The U.S. midterm elections had been among the most anticipated event of 2022 among financial market participants. What is known at this writing is that Republicans retook control of the House of Representatives and will have a seat majority of 25 or more. Control of the Senate remains uncertain, and composition has change little from […] More

Markets Unfazed So Far by Likelihood of a Big Republican Win in Today’s U.S. Midterm Election

November 8, 2022

The dollar strengthened overnight by 0.3% on a weighted basis. It went up 0.2% versus the Aussie dollar 0.3% against the euro, Swiss franc, Chinese yuan, New Zealand dollar and sterling and rose 0.7% relative to the Canadian dollar. There was also a 0.1% dip against the Japanese yen. The ten-year Treasury yield remains unchanged […] More

China Delivers Two Disappointments to Investors

November 7, 2022

Officials in China announced that for now there is to be no change in the government’s zero Covid objective, quelling rumors last week that a modification would soon be forthcoming to promote faster growth. Also China’s October trade surplus of $85.2 billion was $10 billion smaller than street estimates. A 0.7% year-on-year dip in imports […] More

Markets Hopeful Ahead of U.S. Labor Market Data

November 4, 2022

Analysts are expecting the Labor Department’s October figures to show lessening jobs growth, a higher jobless rate, and some deceleration of wage inflation. Yield curve inversion is getting more attention. U.S. stock futures have risen more than 0.5% following sharp post-FOMC losses. A second source of hope comes from China where expectations are mounting of […] More

More Central Bank Rate Hikes and Dollar Rises to a Two-Week Weighted High

November 3, 2022

Big jumps in the dollar are continuing in the wake of yesterday’s sobering Federal Reserve press conference. The greenback is stronger than Wednesday closing levels by 1.5% against sterling, 1.0% versus the kiwi, 0.9% relative to the Swiss franc and Australian dollar, 0.6% vis-a-vis the euro and Canadian dollar, and 0.3% against the yen. Since […] More

Marking Time Ahead of Powell’s Press Conference and Amid Whiffs of Possible Change

November 2, 2022

Another 75-basis point Federal Reserve interest rate hike appears highly likely today and is discounted in the marketplace. Investors are focused on how monetary policy will evolve afterward, as hints of smaller increases from December have been floated. The Fed announcement arrives at 18:00 GMT, but a macroeconomic forecast update isn’t scheduled until next month’s […] More

Investors Heartened by Unconfirmed Social Media Reports that Chinese Covid Restrictions Will Be Relaxed Soon

November 1, 2022

Stock markets in the Pacific Rim soared 5.2% in Hong Kong, 2.6% in China, 1.7% in Australia, 1.8% in South Korea, and 1.2% in Singapore. Japan’s Nikkei firmed only 0.3%, by contrast, but equities in German, France, Great Britain, Spain and Italy are all trading 1-2% higher so far today. U.S. future point to a […] More