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New Overnight Developments Abroad – Daily Update

U.S. Stock Futures Down but Dollar Marginally Stronger

March 29, 2021

Few significant developments abroad have been reported this Monday. The biggest story, associated with a bank-intensive drop in U.S. equity futures, has been the the suspected large losses just before the weekend of the Archegus hedge fund, which was believed responsible for some heavy block selling on Friday. The week ahead will be shortened by […] More

Dollar Ending Week on an Up-Note But Euro Steady

March 26, 2021

The dollar overnight appreciated another 0.35% on a trade weighted basis, but strength wasn’t even this time. The dollar rose 0.6% against the yen and 1.0% relative to the Turkish lira. The key EUR/USD relationship is unchanged, and the greenback has slipped 0.4% versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars, 0.3% vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar […] More

Differentiated Growth and Covid Prospects According to Efficiency of Vaccine Roll-Outs

March 25, 2021

The dollar has been taking its cue lately from vaccine news. The United States has handled the roll-out much better the Europe. Britain had been getting vaccinated at a good clip, too, but now faces a possible EU ban of vaccine exports to the U.K.. Japan’s Covid spread has also picked up lately. The proliferation […] More

European March Purchasing Manager Surveys Show Healthier Growth than Expected but Perhaps Outdated Due to Worsening Covid There

March 24, 2021

The dollar strengthened in Asian trading, reaching its strongest trade-weighted level since Thanksgiving, but it has subsequently trimmed those gains. Compared to Tuesday closings, the dollar is up 0.3% relative to the Turkish lira and sterling and by 0.1% versus the euro, Swiss franc and DXY effective value. Dollar/yen is unchanged, and so are the […] More

Dollar Strengthens on Comparatively Better U.S. Economic and Vaccine Deployment Outlook

March 23, 2021

The dollar advanced broadly overnight by 1.8% against the New Zealand dollar, 1.4% relative to the Turkish lira, 1.0% versus the Australian dollar, 0.7% against the Mexican peso, 0.6% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc and sterling, 0.5% against the euro and 0.4% versus the Canadian dollar and on a trade-weighted basis. Investors are awaiting today’s releases of […] More

Plunge in Turkish Lira after Central Bank President There is Sacked

March 22, 2021

The mercurial political leader of Turkey, President Erdogan, fired Turkey’s central bank president on Saturday, two days after the 1-week repo rate had been raised to 19% from 17%. In the face of rapidly accelerating Turkish inflation, which reached 15.6% last month, the central bank policy rate had also been lifted by 200 basis points […] More

Tough Week for Central Bank Credibility

March 19, 2021

At Wednesday’s press conference, Fed Chairman Powell tried to assuage investor concerns about inflation and the possibility of an earlier Fed tightening than indicated in the central bank’s forward guidance. Markets didn’t quite believe the dovish tone and drove the 10-year Treasury yield from 1.63% then to a high yesterday of 1.76%. Tech stocks in […] More

U.S. Treasury Yield Climbs Sharply in Spite of Fed’s Message and Lifts Dollar

March 18, 2021

Markets aren’t buying yesterday’s dovish policy message from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield roared ten basis points higher overnight to 1.74%, just shy of doubling mid-December’s level. The 10-year British gilt yield rose 6 basis points even though the Bank of England maintained its policy settings, too, and called its current monetary […] More

Awaiting Today’s Fed Forecasts and Powell’s Press Conference

March 17, 2021

Against the backdrop of a significantly improved U.S. economic growth outlook this year and rising U.S. and global inflation lately, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield  climbed from 0.89% in mid-December to 1.01% when the FOMC last met to a 13-month high of 1.67% today, the second scheduled FOMC meeting of 2021 figures to be the […] More

Awaiting U.S. Data and Wednesday’s FOMC Developments

March 16, 2021

Data releases in Asia and Europe were light this Tuesday, but U.S. retail sales, industrial production, import prices, capacity utilization, and NAHB housing index are due shortly. Today is also the first of a two-day FOMC policy review that will include the quarterly update of macroeconomic and interest rate forecasts as well as Chairman Powell’s […] More

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