Deeper Analysis
April 2025 in Figures
April 30, 2025
The dollar fell against most other major currencies in April as it had in the whole first quarter, if not more so. The slide was attributable not to economic fundamentals so much as a generalized loss of confidence in America’s geopolitical role in the world. Stock markets experienced considerable volatility during April, suffering considerable net […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Colombia Delivers Surprise 25-Basis Point Interest Rate Cut
April 30, 2025
From a 13.25% peak maintained from April 2023 until an initial 25-basis point cut in December of that year, Colombia’s central bank interest rate had peaked at 13.25%. CPI inflation had slowed from 13.3% to high single-digit territory by the time of that initial rate but stall just above 5% late last year. 350 basis […] More
Central Bank Watch
A Third Thai Central Bank Rate Cut but Not by a Unanimous Vote
April 30, 2025
By a 5-2 vote with dissents favoring no change, the Bank of Thailand‘s policy interest rate was reduced by 25 basis points from 2.0% to 1.75%. This marked the third such cut from a peak of 2.5% maintained for thirteen months until October 2024. CPI inflation in Thailand of 0.8% in March was below its […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Disturbing U.S. Data Reality Check
April 30, 2025
The last business day of April typically delivered a ton of data releases, but what stood out most was how abruptly U.S. economic activity slowed last quarter. In the wake of the Covid shock of 2020, U.S. GDP had expanded 6.1% in 2021, 2.5% in 2022, 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% last year including 2.7% […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Mid-Tuesday Report: Canadian Liberals Hold onto Power and Another Drop in U.S. Consumer Confidence
April 29, 2025
U.S. stocks and the dollar were holding on to slight gains at the midday hour EDT. Ten-year sovereign debt yields had fallen by three basis points in the United States, Great Britain and Germany and by two bps in France, Italy and Spain. In contrast to gains yesterday, the prices of oil, gold and Bitcoin […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Trump’s First 100 Days Ends Wednesday with Much Still Undone
April 28, 2025
(194) The fifteenth week of the second Trump presidency got off to a more sanguine start, with investors concluding that no news is better than worrisome news. U.S. equity markets opened slightly higher, extending last week’s recovery. Clarity on U.S. tariffs has been prevented by bogged-down negotiations. Legal push-back on other elements of the president’s […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: April 26 – May 2, 2025
April 25, 2025
Central Banks: Interest rate policies will be reviewed in Japan, Colombia, Hungary, Brazil and Thailand. The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices gets published. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, Kent of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Ramsden of the Bank of England have speaking engagements. Holidays and Special Event: Many […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Latest Confusion: China and United States Can’t Even Agree on Whether Trade Talks Between Them Have Begun
April 25, 2025
The dollar is higher this Friday, but U.S. equities opened on a slightly downward note despite better-than-expected Google quarterly earnings reported after Thursday’s session. Dollar gains were led by moves of +0.8% against the yen and +0.7% versus the won. The dollar also climbed 0.4% relative to the Swiss franc and Australian dollar, 0.3% versus […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar and Bond Yields Down, Gold Up, Foreign Stocks Mostly Down, But U.S. Stocks Up
April 24, 2025
The DXY weighted dollar index fell 0.5% overnight on slides of 0.7% against the yen, 0.6% versus the euro and Swiss franc, and 0.5% relative to sterling. This day, however, has seen a lower dollar correlated with lower sovereign debt yields as well, including drops of seven basis points in Italy, six bps in France […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Another About-Face in the Marketplace
April 23, 2025
Markets improved dramatically after flip-flopping President Trump changed his tone in two respects, signaling no intention of firing Powell and turning down the heat against China and in other trade negotiations. The weighted DXY dollar index has strengthened 0.8% so far today. Major U.S. stock indices have rebounded 1.5-3.0%. Equities are also sharply higher in […] More
