Central Bank Watch
ECB Rates Lifted Again but Signal Made that New Levels May Represent the Peak
September 14, 2023
Today’s scheduled Governing Council meeting was one of the four times each year that macroeconomic forecasts were updated. The 25-basis point increase was the tenth straight meeting dating back to July 2022 that resulted in an interest rate hike. The bank is also engaged in balance sheet reduction, and those parameters were not modified. The […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Ukraine Interest Rate Reduced Further
September 14, 2023
In Ukraine, where the paramount inflationary risk stems from a continuing full-scale and unpredictable war, officials at the National Bank cut their benchmark interest rate to 20% from 22% today. That move follows a 300-basis point reduction in July from 25% where the rate had been since 15 percentage point hike in June 2020. Although […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Central Banks and U.S. Data Setting the Tone
September 14, 2023
The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision and revised macroeconomic forecasts within the hour. Expectations are narrowly divided between a rate hike to counter inflation and leaving policy unchanged in light of recessionary conditions and monetary restraint in the pipeline. Growth and inflation projections are apt to be respectively upward and downward. […] More
Central Bank Watch
Interest Rate Cut by the National Bank of Georgia
September 13, 2023
The National Bank of Georgia implemented its third interest rate cut of 2023, lowering such by 25 basis points to 10.0%. The cut matches a 25-bp move done last month after an initial 50-basis point reduction in May. Previously, the rate had been increased from 8.0% to 10.5% during 2021 and by 50 basis points […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Modestly Firmer Dollar Ahead of U.S. Consumer Prices Release
September 13, 2023
The dollar strengthened 0.2% overnight against the yen, euro, sterling and Swiss franc. Analysts project a slight rise in overall U.S. CPI inflation but another slowdown in core inflation that excludes food and energy. U.S. stock futures are a bit softer. Share prices closed down 0.7% in Australia, 0.5% in China, and 0.2% in Japan. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Wait and See
September 12, 2023
Financial markets are marking time ahead of tomorrow’s ECB rate announcement and press conference and the release of U.S. consumer price, producer price and import price data later this week. In spite of speculation that the peak in central bank interest rates may be close at hand, there have been adverse surprises regarding corporate earnings. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Future Monetary Policies in the Financial Market Forefront
September 11, 2023
The dollar opened the week on a softer note, dropping 1.0% against the yen and Australian dollar, 0.8% versus the Mexican peso, 0.7% relative to the kiwi and Chinese yuan, 0.5% against the euro, 0.4% vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar, and 0.2% against sterling. The greenback is 2.1% weaker against the ruble. Share prices dropped by […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: September 9-15, 2023
September 8, 2023
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed by the European Central Bank and by monetary authorities in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, and Peru. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference after the Governing Council meeting is over. Scheduled U.S. Data Releases: Producer prices, consumer prices, import prices, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, small business […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Continuing Worry about China’s Economy and an Equivocal Remark from the President of the N.Y. Federal Reserve
September 8, 2023
Equities fell on Friday by 1.3% in Hong Kong, 1.2% in Japan, 0.8% in New Zealand, 0.4% in Indonesia, and 0.2% in China. Japanese GDP growth between the first and second quarters was revised downward from 6.0% at an annualized rate to 4.8%. Compared to 2Q 2022, however, GDP rose just 1.6%, little better than […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Softer World Growth Troubling Stocks
September 7, 2023
In the Federal Reserve Bank Beige Book of regional economic conditions released yesterday, only the Dallas district had better than modest growth, and even that regional economy was tarnished by uneven activity across sectors. Four districts stagnated, and the Philly district experienced a modest contraction of activity. Second-quarter GDP in the euro area has been […] More
