Deeper Analysis
July 2023 in Figures
July 31, 2023
July was a strong month for equities and a period when the dollar eased pretty much across the board. Policy interest rates rose 25 basis points at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, and National Bank of Serbia. Larger central bank rate changes were executed at the Bank of Ghana (+50 basis […] More
Central Bank Watch
Chilean Interest Rate Cut
July 31, 2023
Late Friday came news of a full percentage point reduction in the Central Bank of Chile‘s key interest rate to 10.25%. The rate had been lifted from 0.5% to 4.0% in 2021 and to a 24-year high of 11.25% in seven additional incremental policy tightenings by October 2022. Chilean CPI inflation of 7.6% last month […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lots of Data and a Weakening Yen on Final Day of July
July 31, 2023
The dollar rose 0.7% against the Japanese yen but mostly softened against other currencies including drops of 1.0% against the Australian dollar, 0.9% relative to the New Zealand dollar, 0.3% versus the Canadian dollar and 0.1% vis-a-vis the euro. Share prices rose 1.3% in Japan, 0.9% in South Korea, 0.8% in Kong Kong, 0.6% in […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: July 29 – August 4, 2023
July 28, 2023
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews scheduled in the U.K., Thailand, Czech Republic, and Australia. Bank of Japan Board minutes, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, and the Bank of England’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report get published. Governor Bailey of the BOE and Governor Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia hold press […] More
Central Bank Watch
BOJ Slightly Loosens Enforcement of Yield Curve Control
July 28, 2023
At this month’s scheduled Board meeting, Bank of Japan policymakers sent a mixed message, on the one hand stressing “the Bank needs to patiently continue with monetary easing under Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control” but also at last tweaking the rules surrounding its long-term interest rate target with the assertion […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Many Data to Absorb Plus Bank of Japan Finally Modifies Yield Curve Control Parameters
July 28, 2023
At this month’s scheduled Board meeting, Bank of Japan policymakers sent a mixed message, on the one hand stressing “the Bank needs to patiently continue with monetary easing under Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control” but also at last tweaking the rules surrounding its long-term interest rate target with the assertion […] More
Deeper Analysis
Round-Up of U.S. Data Released Today
July 27, 2023
U.S. GDP growth accelerated from 2.0% at an annualized rate in the first quarter to a quarterly 2.4% pace in the second quarter. This was the earliest estimate and exceeded analyst expectations of a slowdown to 1.8%. The earliest estimate of growth in the first quarter was 1.1%, but that figure eventually got revised up […] More
Central Bank Watch
Like the Fed’s Move, ECB’s 25-Basis Point Refinancing Rate Hike Matched Market Expectations
July 27, 2023
The deposit, refinancing and marginal lending facility rates of the European Central Bank were each lifted by 25 basis points to 3.75%, 4.25% and 4.50%, respectively, after today’s scheduled monetary policy review. There have been no pauses as yet since the tightening cycle began in July 2022, but the cumulative 425 basis point rise in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Softer After Yesterday’s Fed Rate Hike
July 27, 2023
The dollar in overnight trading lost 0.6-0.7% against the New Zealand and Australian currencies, 0.5% versus the euro and Swiss franc, 0.4% relative to the Turkish lira and 0.2% vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar. Prices for Bitcoin and WTI oil are up 0.5% and 1.0%. U.S. stock futures have strengthened, and 10-year sovereign debt yields are […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Statement and Post-Meeting Press Conference
July 26, 2023
The FOMC as expected lifted the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 5.25-5.50%. The vote behind this action was again unanimous. Eleven straight meetings resulting in a rate hike had been followed at the prior meeting by no change with the caveat that the cyclical peak would almost certainly be higher than […] More
