Much Data in Spite of U.S. Holiday

July 5, 2021

Monday’s menu of economic data releases includes over 30 purchasing manager surveys, French industrial production, British and German new car sales, Turkey’s CPI and PPI, Australian and Singaporean retail sales, and consumer confidence in Spain, Mexico and the Philippines. Fissures have developed in OPEC unity over production quotas.

Observances continue of America’s 245th birthday. Today is a U.S. bank holiday, and the stock exchange will be shut.

The dollar has strengthened by 0.6% against the Mexican peso and Australian dollar, by 0.5% against the New Zealand dollar, and 0.3% versus the Canadian dollar, but the U.S. currency also fell 0.2% vis-a-vis the yen and yuan, and 0.1% relative to the euro and sterling. The Swiss franc is steady. Although steady as well, the Turkish lira is hovering not far from its record low and after distressing Turkish price data for June that saw CPI inflation accelerated to a 25-month high of 17.5% and PPI inflation soar 4.0% on month and to a 31-month peak of 42.9%.

Ten-year German bund and British gilt yields rose a basis point, and the prices of WTI oil and Comex gold are 0.5% firmer.

Equity markets closed down 0.6% in Japan and Hong Kong but up 1.2% in Taiwan, 0.9% in New Zealand, 0.8% in India, and 0.4% in China and Singapore. Stock markets so far today have risen 0.5% in Italy, 0.4% in the U.K., 0.3% in Spain and 0.2% in France.

Euroland’s composite and service-sector purchasing manager indices for June were each revised somewhat up to 180-month and 167-month highs. Business sentiment reached a 21-year high. Economic growth at midyear has moved to a higher gear, but inflation ratcheted up too amid temporary shortages in the factors of production. Composite PMI indices ranged from a 41-month high of 57.4 in France to a 2-month low of 63.4 in Ireland.

Britain’s composite PMI and services PMI had improved to 280- and 91-month highs in May. June saw a slight downtick in each to readings of 62.2 and 62.4, respectively.

China‘s composite and service sector purchasing manager indices printed at 14-month lows of 50.6 and 50.3, reflecting minimal activity growth.

India‘s composite and service sector PMI readings moved even more deeply below the 50 breakeven level to 11-month lows of 43.1 and 41.2 in June. Inflationary pressure subsided.

Australia‘s composite and service-sector PMI scores were revised upward 56.7 and 56.8 in June. Although signaling respectably positive growth, new covid restrictions have depressed them to 3-month lows. Australia’s construction purchasing managers report showed another slowdown of activity to a 7-month low of 55.1. Building permits, had recovered at a double-digit pace in February and March but fell 5.7% in April and another 7.1% in May.

Russian composite and service-sector PMI’s fell to 2-month lows of 55.0 and 56.5 and were accompanied by signs of cresting inflation.

Sweden’s composite PMI settled back to a 3-month low of 66.9 in June, while the services PMI of 67.4 was at a 2-month low.

The South African private PMI compiled by Standard Bank dropped 2.2 points in June to a 3-month low of 51.0.

Singapore‘s private-sector PMI declined 4.3 points to a 7-month low of 50.1.

In the Middle East, the Lebanese private PMI of 47.5 was at a 2-month low, and the non-oil PMI of the U.A.E. edged 0.1 point lower to a 4-month low of 52.2. Saudi Arabia’s non-oil PMI matched May’s 4-month high of 56.4 but showed a drop in input prices for the first time this year.

French industrial production had been forecast to rose almost 1% on month in May but instead dipped 0.3%.

Consumer confidence last month rose to a 2-year high in Spain, a 21-month high in Mexico, and a 1-year high in the Philippines.

CPI inflation in Thailand settled back over one percentage point to a 3-month low in June of 1.25%. Core inflation stood at 0.5%.

Australian retail sales posted smaller increases in May of 0.4% on month and 7.7% on year. In Singapore, retail sales dropped 6.8% on month but posted a record 79.7% 12-month rate of increase in May.

Investor sentiment toward the euro area climbed in July to its best level since February 2018, according to the Sentix measure.

Copyright 2021, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.


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