Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: November 7-13, 2020
November 6, 2020
Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings are scheduled in New Zealand, Serbia, Mexico and Peru. John Williams of the N.Y. Fed speaks publicly next week as will Haldane, Tenreyro and Governor Bailey of the Bank of England, Adachi of the Bank of Japan, and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins of the Bank of Canada. A summary of […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Awaiting U.S. Jobs Report and Clarification on U.S. Election Results
November 6, 2020
Prior to the release of the monthly U.S. labor market report, investors were taking recent stock market profits. U.S. futures had fallen about 1%, similar to losses of 1.1% in Germany and 0.9% in Japan, France and Spain. No winner has been declared in the U.S. presidential race. Dem and Rep supporters are warring over […] More
Central Bank Watch
An Essentially Unchanged FOMC Statement and No Great Illuminations from Powell’s Press Conference
November 5, 2020
Today’s monetary policy from the FOMC contains no meaningful modifications from the prior one on September 16th. The two insignificant changes occur in the second paragraph, which describes economic conditions. Number one, a factor that will be keeping inflation down was described in September a “significantly lower oil prices” and now as “earlier declines in […] More
Uncategorized
FOMC Preview
November 5, 2020
The Fed’s FOMC will announce its latest interest rate decision at 14:00 EST (19:00 GMT). No policy change is anticipated, but Chairman Powell’s press conference will be gleaned regarding any reaction to the continuing fiscal bill inaction in Congress amid a deepening pandemic in the United States. At the time of the previous FOMC meeting seven […] More
Central Bank Watch
Quantitative Monetary Stimulus Raised in the U.K.
November 5, 2020
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee left its bank rate steady at 0.10% but augmented the program of government bond purchases by GBP 150 billion to GBP 875 billion. The bank rate earlier this year was cut 50 basis points on March 11 and by a further 15 bps eight days later to its […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.S. Still Counting Votes as 24-Hour Rise Covid Cases and Deaths Exceed 107K and 1.1K
November 5, 2020
U.S. Election News: Biden’s electoral college count seems likely to reach 270 threshold. Trump is suing to halt counting of absentee ballots, and street protests against such action broke out in several cities overnight. Congress most likely will remain divided with Dems controlling the House and Republicans holding the Senate, but there too ballot counting […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.S. Election Outcome Still Uncertain but Republicans Did Much Better than Foretold by Polls
November 4, 2020
The U.S. congress will remain divided, with the senate in Republican hands and Democrats controlling the house of representatives. Officially according to the AP, Biden secured 238 electoral votes whereas Trump so far captured 213 electoral votes. Among undeclared states, more electoral votes lean toward Trump, but margins are thin and subject to switching sides […] More
Central Bank Watch
Reserve Bank of Australia Eases Policy Further… Not a Surprise
November 3, 2020
Policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia enacted their first Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) cut since March and introduced a program of government bond purchases, which will total A$ 100 billion over the coming six months and likely continue longer. Although the short-term economic outlook is better than at the time of the last full […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.S. Election Day Has Come, and Stocks Are Rallying Around the World
November 3, 2020
There is a mood of trepidation this Election Day. Record numbers were cast early, and the choice is considered the starkest in living memory. Fears center on the possibility of a contested outcome and ensuing violence, with interference from cyber meddling and other glitches in counting the results. Despite widespread agreement that America is going […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. Minus Ezone Manufacturing PMI Differential Widened in October
November 2, 2020
October’s 4.5-point spread between the U.S. and Euroland manufacturing purchasing manager indices was 2.8 points wider than in September and the greatest differential since last April. Euroland’s IHS-compiled PMI increased 1.1 points, while the ISM-compiled U.S. PMI jumped 3.9 points to a two-year high of 59.3. The monthly averages of the EUR/USD exchange rate in […] More
