U.S. Minus Ezone Manufacturing PMI Differential Widened in October
November 2, 2020
October’s 4.5-point spread between the U.S. and Euroland manufacturing purchasing manager indices was 2.8 points wider than in September and the greatest differential since last April. Euroland’s IHS-compiled PMI increased 1.1 points, while the ISM-compiled U.S. PMI jumped 3.9 points to a two-year high of 59.3. The monthly averages of the EUR/USD exchange rate in August, September, and October paint an extremely tight shot group.
The improved U.S. index was broadly shared among the major sub-categories. New orders leaped 7.7 points. Employment rose 3.6 points, prices went up 2.7 points, and production increased 2.1 points.
Seven of the eight participating Euroland economies for which national factory surveys were taken had PMI readings above 50 but just barely in the case of France (51.3), the Netherlands (50.5), and Ireland (50.3). Greece with a reading of 48.7 was the only economy where manufacturing conditions contracted. At the other end of the spectrum, the German PMI, which had bottomed at 39.5 last April, rose for the fifth straight month and printed at a 31-month high of 58.2.
| Mfg PMIs | U.S. | Euroland | Spread | EUR/USD |
| Jan 2013 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.330 |
| February | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | 1.334 |
| March | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | 1.295 |
| April | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | 1.301 |
| May | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | 1.299 |
| June | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | 1.319 |
| July | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | 1.309 |
| August | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | 1.331 |
| September | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | 1.335 |
| October | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | 1.364 |
| November | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | 1.349 |
| December | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | 1.370 |
| Jan 2014 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | 1.361 |
| February | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | 1.366 |
| March | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | 1.380 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | 1.380 |
| May | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | 1.374 |
| June | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | 1.360 |
| July | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | 1.354 |
| August | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | 1.332 |
| September | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | 1.290 |
| October | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | 1.268 |
| November | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | 1.247 |
| December | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | 1.232 |
| Jan 2015 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | 1.162 |
| February | 53.3 | 51.0 | +2.3 | 1.135 |
| March | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | 1.083 |
| April | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | 1.081 |
| May | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | 1.116 |
| June | 53.1 | 52.5 | +0.6 | 1.123 |
| July | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | 1.101 |
| August
September October |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
1.114
1.123 1.121 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2017 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2018 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2019 February March April May June July August September October November December Jan 2020 February March April May June July August September October |
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.7 51.7 50.7 51.0 52.8 52.8 49.4 51.7 52.0 53.5 54.5 56.0 57.6 56.8 55.3 55.5 56.7 56.5 59.3 60.2 58.5 58.2 59.3 59.1 60.7 59.3 57.9 58.7 60.0 58.4 60.8 59.5 57.5 58.8 54.3 56.6 54.2 55.3 52.8 52.1 51.7 51.2 49.1 47.8 48.3 48.1 47.4 50.9 50.1 49.1 41.5 43.1 52.6 54.2 56.0 55.4 59.3
|
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 53.5 53.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 57.4 58.1 58.5 60.1 60.6 59.6 58.6 56.6 56.2 55.5 54.9 55.1 54.6 53.2 52.0 51.8 51.4 50.5 49.3 47.5 47.9 47.7 47.6 46.5 47.0 45.7 45.9 46.9 46.3 47.9 49.2 44.5 33.4 39.4 47.4 51.8 51.7 53.7 54.8
|
-4.4
-4.8 -4.1 -1.5 +0.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 +0.8 -2.3 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.4 +0.8 +2.2 +0.6 -1.4 -1.5 -0.7 -0.1 +1.9 +2.1 0.0 -1.9 -1.3 -0.5 +2.1 +2.7 +1.7 +3.2 +5.1 +3.3 +6.2 +6.3 +5.5 +7.0 +2.9 +6.1 +4.9 +7.8 +4.9 +4.4 +4.1 +4.7 +2.1 +2.1 +2.4 +1.2 +1.1 +3.0 +0.9 +4.6 +8.1 +3.7 +5.2 +2.4 +4.3 +1.7 +4.5 |
1.076
1.090 1.087 1.111 1.114 1.134 1.130 1.124 1.106 1.120 1.121 1.103 1.078 1.054 1.063 1.064 1.069 1.072 1.106 1.124 1.153 1.182 1.191 1.176 1.174 1.184 1.220 1.234 1.234 1.227 1.181 1.167 1.169 1.155 1.166 1.148 1.136 1.138 1.142 1.135 1.130 1.123 1.118 1.130 1.121 1.112 1.101 1.106 1.105 1.111 1.110 1.091 1.105 1.087 1.091 1.126 1.147 1.177 1.178 1.177 |
Copyright 2020, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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