Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
June 29, 2019
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Sweden, Romania, Poland and Australia. Governor Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia and Funo of the Bank of Japan speak publicly. EU leaders to try to pick next ECB president. Holidays and Special Events: Canada Day on Monday and U.S. Independence Day on Thursday. G-20 summit in Osaka […] More
Deeper Analysis
June and the Second Quarter in Figures
June 28, 2019
Although the major central banks did not change their key short-term interest rates in the second quarter, global disinflation and decelerating economic growth depressed expected inflation and fanned speculation that monetary policies will be eased later in 2019. This in turn put downward pressure on long-term interest rates but incentivized share prices to climb. President […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Trade Showdown and Many Data Releases
June 28, 2019
The Group of Twenty annual summit kicked off in Osaka and looms as a crossroads in the U.S.-Sino dispute over trade. Either the conflict gets diffused here, or retaliatory tariffs are likely to escalate sharply. Being the last business day of the second quarter and June, today’s data menu was plentiful. The dollar eased overnight […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Marking Time Ahead of G-20 Summit
June 27, 2019
There’s been little change in the dollar, price of oil, or European equities overnight. The Group of Twenty summit in Osaka starts tomorrow. EU leaders will try again to pick the next ECB president by next week. Ten-year sovereign debt yields dipped a basis point in the United States, Germany and Japan. Asian stock markets […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank Rate Cut in Iceland
June 26, 2019
The Central Bank of Iceland’s 7-day term rate has been cut 25 basis points to 3.75% following a 50-basis point reduction at the prior monetary policy review last month. These moves represent a trend reversal from a 25-basis point increase last November. In a released statement explaining the decision, officials anticipate a contraction of domestic […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Central Banks and Weak European Data in the Spotlight
June 26, 2019
The Central Bank of Iceland’s 7-day term rate has been cut 25 basis points to 3.75% following a 50-basis point reduction at the prior monetary policy review last month. These moves represent a trend reversal from a 25-basis point increase last November. In a released statement explaining the decision, officials anticipate a contraction of domestic […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Risk Averse Tuesday
June 25, 2019
Persistent concerns about U.S. relations with Iran and China are weighing on stocks and lifting the price of gold. Another worry is the greater perceived likelihood of a non-negotiated Brexit. Share prices in Asia fell 1.2% in Hong Kong, 0.9% in China, 0.7% in Taiwan and 0.4% in Japan. Stocks in Europe have declined so […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Turkey and Iran in the News
June 24, 2019
The Turkish ruling party’s candidate was soundly defeated in Istanbul’s re-run mayoral election. This blow to President Erdogen’s autocratic regime sent the Turkish lira up 0.8% against the dollar. Iranian authorities are claiming that U.S. cyber attack against Iran’s rocket launch system were unsuccessful. Fears of a U.S.-Iran war persist. The price of WTI crude […] More
Deeper Analysis
Dollar-Supporting U.S. Balance of Payments
June 21, 2019
The seasonally adjusted U.S. current account deficit was $13.5 billion smaller in the first quarter than in the final quarter of 2018, and it narrowed 0.3 percentage points as a percent of GDP to 2.5%. That ratio, which this century crested at 6.3% in the final quarter of 2005, hasn’t averaged 3.0% or higher in […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
June 21, 2019
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in New Zealand, Iceland, Mexico, Thailand, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Bank of Japan publishes minutes from its April meeting and a summary of this month’s meeting. Federal Reserve officials speaking publicly include Chairman Powell, Bullard (who dissented at this week’s FOMC meeting), Bostic and Harker. Bullard and Lowe of […] More
