Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu
May 31, 2019
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews scheduled in Euroland, Australia, India, Ukraine, Poland, and Chile. Fed Chairman Powell, Fed District Bank President Bostic, and Vice Chair Clarida speak publicly. So does Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda and RBA Governor Lowe. The Fed Beige Book of regional U.S. economic conditions will be published. Holidays: End of Ramadan […] More
Deeper Analysis
Thursday-Friday Data from the U.S. and Canada
May 31, 2019
U.S. first-quarter real GDP growth was revised down a tenth of a percentage point to 3.1% at an annualized rate from the prior quarter. This was the third time in four quarters in which growth was 3.1% or stronger. Over the eleven quarters following mid-2015, real growth didn’t exceed 3.0% even once. On the other […] More
Central Bank Watch
Sri Lankan Interest Rates Cut
May 31, 2019
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka cut its interest rates by a half percentage point, citing the Easter terrorist attacks there, easier monetary policies elsewhere, downward rigidity in Sri Lankan market rates, slowing private sector credit expansion, a narrowed trade deficit, and subpar domestic growth. A recent uptick of inflation was dismissed as not being […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Financial Markets Feeling the Strain of A Breakdown in International Trade Relations
May 31, 2019
President Trump is imposing a tariff on all U.S. imports from Mexico in retaliation of that country’s failure to contain the flow of migrants crossing into the United States. China is ramping up its response to President Trump’s recent protectionist acts against Chinese exports and especially the action against Huawei. U.S.-EU trade talks also have […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Moderate Uptick in Equities in Spite of More Trade Worries
May 30, 2019
Share prices in Europe are up 1.0% in Spain, 0.6% in Germany, 0.5% in France and the U.K., and 0.3% in Italy. U.S. futures suggest a rise at the open of U.S. stocks at the open, but that could change when U.S. data arrive covering GDP, jobless insurance claims and the advance trade deficit indication. […] More
Central Bank Watch
Canadian Monetary Stance Deemed Appropriate… No Changes Made
May 29, 2019
Just five weeks separated the last meeting of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council on April 24 and this week’s, and officials decided to maintain the overnight rate target at 1.75% as was expected. A released statement observes that the economic landscape has evolved as anticipated in three notable areas: 1) domestic demand is picking […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Further Decline in Sovereign Debt Yields and Share Prices
May 29, 2019
The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped another 3 basis points, and sovereign debt yields of similar maturity slid a basis point overnight in Germany, the U.K., and Japan as well. Investors are bracing for slower global growth as trade protectionism intensifies. Share prices fell by a bit more than 1.0% in Japan, South Korea, France, […] More
Central Bank Watch
Hungarian Monetary Policy Stance Left Unchange
May 28, 2019
Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s base rate has been at 0.90% since a 15 basis point reduction three years ago. The overnight deposit rate was raised 10 basis points two months ago to minus 0.05% in a move that reversed a cut of 10 bps in September 2017. Monetary officials at the central bank remain satisfied that […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Tariff War Concerns Rattle Investors
May 28, 2019
President Trump’s predisposition to fight a tariff war that he believes is winnable depressed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 2.30% to its lowest level since October 2017 and weighed on European and Asian share prices. Equities fell 1.1% in Indonesia, 0.4% in New Zealand and 0.2% in Taiwan and Singapore. Stocks in Europe have […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
European Parliamentary Election Results Trickling In
May 27, 2019
The dollar is little changed. U.S. markets will be shut for Memorial Day, and British markets were closed for the late Spring banking holiday. Britain’s makeshift Brexit Party whose agenda consists solely of taking the country out of the EU as soon as possible and at any cost easily captured the biggest British slice of […] More
