New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Pick-Up in Flow of Data Creates New Trading Incentives
August 18, 2016
Wednesday had seen a lull in statistical releases and a commensurate lackluster trading day. Thursday’s been a more interesting day from both vantage points. Released figures include Japanese trade and machine tool orders, Euroland consumer prices, current account and construction output, British retail sales, Australian labor statistics, and Chinese property prices. Investors also are reacting […] More
Deeper Analysis
The Case in the FOMC Minutes for a Second Rate Hike Being Done Sooner
August 17, 2016
Minutes from the July 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee reveal a range of opinions regarding how soon to undertake a second hike of the federal funds target range. The diversity of views was greater than suggested by the single dissenting vote by Kansas City Fed President George in favor of a hike then. Certainly more […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Deja Vu
August 17, 2016
Wednesday’s been very quiet from a data release standpoint. Market trading has been dominated by Fed watching, which in the wake of remarks yesterday by Fed District Presidents Dudley of New York and Lockhart of Atlanta has markets pricing in much higher odds of a fed funds rate increase before yearend. They suggested a move […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Dollar Ranges So Far in 2016
August 16, 2016
After the close of yesterday, five-eighths of 2016 had been completed. Up to that point, the dollar had ranged considerably more widely against the yen, sterling loonie, Aussie dollar and kiwi than against the euro and Swiss franc. The high-low spreads of the EUR/USD and USD/CHF pairs were only 8.4% and 8.6%, while the trading […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Weaker Dollar and World Share Prices Ahead of Key U.S. Data Releases
August 16, 2016
The dollar fell overnight by 1.3% against the yen (now showing a 99 handle), 1.2% relative to the Swiss franc and kiwi, 1.0% versus the euro (which is near 1.13), 0.9% vis-a-vis sterling (hurt by a rise in British inflation), 0.8% against the Aussie and Canadian dollars, and 0.3% versus the yuan. Japan’s Nikkei closed […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Investor Hope Sustained into New Week
August 15, 2016
Like last week, markets continue to interpret weak economic data in the positive light that central banks and fiscal authorities will respond with aggressive macroeconomic stimulus that keeps long term interest rates low and commodities and equities buoyant. The major data report overnight was preliminary Japanese GDP in the second quarter, which rose in volume […] More
Deeper Analysis
The Enigmatic U.S. Economy
August 12, 2016
U.S. economic data trends span a wide spectrum, hampering analysts from synthesizing current conditions and prospective trends into a coherent direction with strong confidence. Start with the good. Jobs growth in June and July averaged a robust 274K per month, well above the 75-100K needed to avoid a rising jobless rate, which at 4.9% is […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
August 12, 2016
Monday Holidays: Assumption Day observed in several European markets. South Korean National Liberation Day commemorating freedom from Japanese colonialism. Central Banks: Bank Indonesia has an interest rate policy. The Fed, ECB and Reserve Bank of Australia publish policy meeting minutes. Fed district bank presidents Williams, Bullard and Lockhart speak publicly. U.S. Economic Statistical Releases: Consumer […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Chile
August 12, 2016
The notable element in the latest statement from Chilean monetary authorities isn’t the announced decision to keep its interest rate benchmark at 3.5% or the reasons given for doing so but rather that language found in earlier such statements that explicitly projected more rate normalization (code for rate hikes) was deleted. Instead, officials just pledge […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Reserve Bank of Peru
August 12, 2016
Peru’s monetary policy rate had been raised during the final quarter of 2015 twice by 25 basis points and again in January and February of this year by the same amount. But there have been no further changes including at the latest Board meeting today. A statement released after the meeting justifies keeping the rate […] More
