Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
September 30, 2016
Purchasing Managers Surveys: Next week is PMI week, bringing the release of a ton of manufacturing surveys, many service sector reports, some non-oil PMIs, construction PMIs for Britain, Germany and Australia, and retail PMIs covering Euroland, Germany, France and Italy. PMI surveys tend to be more timely than most hard economic data. Central Banks: Monetary policy […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Romania
September 30, 2016
Officials at NBR consider monetary conditions appropriately stimulative. While today’s policy statement observes elevated uncertainties and notes that the latest on-year changes in total consumer prices and core components of the index are only -0.2% and +0.5%, the baseline outlook for inflation is a sanguine picture: Recent assessments reconfirm the outlook for the annual inflation […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Mexico Raises Interest Rates for Third Time in 2016
September 30, 2016
As a U.S. presidential candidate with hostile intentions regarding relations with Mexico, Donald Trump is already influencing Mexican monetary policy the Bank of Mexico increased its policy interest rate to 4.75% from 4.25%. This was the third 50-basis point central bank rate hike since February and completely reverses easing undertaken between March 2013 and October […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Bank Share Price Woes Escalate as Quarter Draws to a Close
September 30, 2016
There’s been the usual cornucopia of data releases on the final business day of the calendar quarter, but the big story of the day involves Deutsche Bank, whose share price is down nearly 10%. Deutsche’s woes are dragging down other stocks in the global financial sector despite supposed safeguards built into the system in the […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan)
September 29, 2016
Monetary officials agreed to leave Taiwan’s discount rate unchanged at 1.375%, which is an accommodative stance according to a statement released today. The interest rate was cut by 12.5 basis points at each of the previous four quarterly policy reviews stretching back to September 2015. Monetary stances have remained easy at the central banks in […] More
Central Bank Watch
Czech National Bank Leaves Policy Unchanged
September 29, 2016
Czech monetary officials still expect policy settings to remain as is until mid-2017. The policy interest rate has been at a mere 0.05% since November 2012, and the near-zero interest rate policy was supplemented a year later by the establishment of an intervention-enforced koruna cap at 27 per euro. A statement released today notes that […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Complicated and Contradictory Day of News
September 29, 2016
India announced it had delivered surgical strikes on militant terrorist camps just within Pakistan. Pakistan’s government is denying the accusation and India’s claim that the strike inflicted heavy casualties. The one thing certain is that the incident constitutes an escalation of one of the world’s most serious potential hotspots. The Indian rupee lost 0.6%, and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Oil and European Share Prices Show Firmer Tone
September 28, 2016
This has been another day with comparatively few releases of economic data — mostly some sentiment measures. Japanese small business sentiment recovered 1.4 points to a 2-month high of 47.7 in September but remains mired below the 50 threshold. Consumer confidence in China according to the Westpac gauge rebounded 3.7 points to a 3-month high […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over
September 27, 2016
Clinton was at first perceived as the clear debate winner last night, which spurred a rally of stocks in Asia and emerging market currencies like the Mexican peso. She was deemed the winner overall but also on virtually all issues discussed. Narrowest margin was on likely handling of the economy. Donald Trump reserved one of […] More
Larry's Blog
Short Note on Presidential Polls
September 26, 2016
The first debate between Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party nominee, and Donald Trump, the Republican Party standard-bearer, takes place tonight. Presidential opinion polls now show a race that’s too close to call both nationally and in the key states that are likely to determine the outcome. Momentum is clearly behind Trump’s sail, however, since the […] More
