Chinese, Japanese and German Trade Data Reveal Surprises
March 9, 2015
The risk-off trading environment that ensued after U.S. labor statistics were released Friday has continued.
- Share prices fell 2.1% in India, 1.3% in Indonesia and Australia, 1.0% in Japan and South Korea, and 0.9% in Taiwan. The Chinese market’s 1.7% rise was an exception, reflecting hints the Premier Li that more stimulus in 2015 is possible. In European trading, equities have tumbled 3.3% in Greece and fallen 0.6% in Switzerland and Great Britain, 0.4% in France, 0.3% in Spain, and 0.1% in Germany.
- Comex gold recovered 0.7% but remains below $1,200 at $1,172.80 per troy ounce.
- West Texas Intermediate oil is 0.2% softer at $49.50 per barrel.
- The dollar has slipped 0.4% against the euro and sterling, 0.3% versus the kiwi, 0.2% against the loonie and Swiss franc and 0.1% vis-a-vis the Australia dollar. The yuan is unchanged, and the yen has dipped 0.1%.
- The 10-year Japanese JGB yield firmed two basis points to 0.41%. The 10-year German bund is steady, and the 10-year British gilt yield dipped a basis point.
The Chinese trade surplus widened still further in February to another record high of $60.62 billion, some six times larger than forecast, as imports tumbled 20.5% on year, most since May 2009. Because of the Lunar New Year holiday’s distortion, exports surged 48.3%.
Japan posted the first seasonally adjusted monthly settlements basis trade surplus since 2011 in January, albeit of just 32 billion yen. The unadjusted trade deficit, JPY 864 billion, was less than expected and only about a third the size of the January 2014 deficit of JPY 2.405 trillion. Exports were 15.3% higher than a year before, while imports fell by 8.9%. The current account surplus of JPY 61 billion on an unadjusted basis compared with a January 2014 deficit of JPY 1.586 trillion, and the adjusted current account surplus widened to JPY 1.058 trillion from December’s surplus of 853 billion yen.
Germany’s unadjusted current account surplus contracted 34.4% on month to EUR 16.8 billion but still surpassed the year-earlier surplus of EUR 13.9 billion. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus of EUR 19.7 billion was a 4-month low, reflecting a 2.1% drop in exports but only a 0.3% dip in imports.
Japanese fourth-quarter real GDP growth was revised downward to an annualized 1.5% from 3Q versus 2.2% estimated initially. Residential investment (-4.6%) and non-residential business spending (-0.3%) each fell, and inventories exerted a 0.6 percentage point drag on the quarterly growth rate. Exports grew 11.5%, and personal consumption went up 2.0%. Real GDP was 0.8% lower than in 4Q13. The GDP price deflator was 2.4% above its year-earlier level, reflecting the April 2014 consumption tax hike.
Japan’s economy watchers index, a gauge of what service-sector workers are observing, crossed over the 50 threshold, rising 4.5 points to 50.1, which was well above street forecasts. The forward-looking outlook economy watchers index advanced 3.2 points to a reading of 53.2.
Japanese bankruptcies recorded a 12-month decline in February of 11.5% after falling by 16.55% in the year to January but 8.53% in December. Japanese bank lending expanded 2.5% on year in February and 2.6% excluding trusts. These results matched January’s and were similar to the fourth-quarter’s increases of 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.
The Sentix measure of investor sentiment toward the eurozone improved much more than forecast to a 91-month high of 18.6 in March from 12.4 in February, 0.9 in January and -13.7 as recently as October.
The French business sentiment index for manufacturing compiled by the Bank of France unexpectedly weakened last month, falling back to December’s reading of 96 from January’s 98 score. The central bank revised its projection for first-quarter GDP growth down to 0.3%.
Ireland’s construction purchasing managers index dropped 5.1 points to 52.0, lowest in a year and a half.
Czech unemployment of 7.5% last month was less than expected. Czech consumer price inflation stayed at 0.1%, and the Czech trade balance swung from a CZK 3.9 billion deficit in December to a CZK 17.3 billion surplus.
Australian job ads grew 0.9% in February, less than the 1.2% increase in January and the 1.8% jump in December but nonetheless the ninth month-on-month rise in a row.
New Zealand’s volume index of manufacturing activity grew 0.9% in 4Q14, more than doubling the third-quarter’s 0.4% pace.
Turkish industrial production fell 2.2% on year in January, the first 12-month drop since December 2012. Taiwanese consumer prices in February were 0.2% lower than a year earlier.
Canadian housing starts and the U.S. labor market conditions index will be reported today. The Minneapolis and Dallas Fed presidents speak publicly today.
Quantitative easing by the European Central Bank begins today.
Over the weekend, the United States and Canada switched to Daylight Savings Time. This shortens the interval between New York and London to four hours from five but lengthens the spread between Tokyo and New York to 14 hours from 13.
Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Chinese trade, German trade, Japanese current account, Japanese GDP
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