Deeper Analysis
September and the Third Quarter in Figures
September 30, 2013
The dollar traded lower in September except against the yen. Share prices advanced pretty strongly, and bond yields settled back, spurred by the Fed’s surprise decision not to taper just yet. The prices of gold and oil fell. During the third quarter, equities climbed, but the dollar eased against the currencies covered in this feature. […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Colombia Eases Again
September 30, 2013
Colombia’s monetary policy rate had held steady at 5.25% for fifteen months, but easing resumed in the third quarter of 2013 with cuts of 25 basis points at the start of July, 50 bps in August and another 25 bps to 4.25% today. An accompanying statement explains, “The resumption in disinflation has enabled a new […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lots of Monthend Data and a Likely U.S. Government Shutdown Tomorrow
September 30, 2013
Stocks were whacked overnight in Asia and Europe on prospects for a shutdown of the U.S. federal government. Share prices plunged 3.0% in the Philippines, 2.4% in Indonesia, 2.1% in Japan, 1.8% in India, 1.7% in Australia, 1.5% in Hong Kong, 1.3% in Singapore, and 1.0% in New Zealand. Losses thus far in Europe amount […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
September 27, 2013
The coming week bridges the end of the third quarter to the start of the final quarter of 2013. The September purchasing manager surveys for many countries will be published, first covering manufacturing and later service-producing activities. Germany and Britain also have construction PMI reports. Japan has a very busy data calendar including the Bank […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Colombia
September 27, 2013
Another monthly Board of Directors meeting ended today without a change in the 3.25% benchmark interest rate. The last change was a reduction of 50 basis points on March 22 that punctuated a seven-move drop from 5.25% in which all six prior moves had been declines of 25 basis points. The streak began in July […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
In Search of Market Clarity
September 27, 2013
No single market theme stands out. Quarter-end is fast approaching. Another U.S. fiscal showdown looms. Overnight data have been mixed. Esther George, K.C. Federal Reserve President, criticized the FOMC’s backtrack on tapering; she favored a cut to $70 billion in monthly asset purchases. Japanese Finance Minister Aso did some backtracking of his own, indicating the […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
U.S. Currency Generally Buoyant in Spite of Loss against Euro
September 26, 2013
The dollar’s performance in 2013 has been a mixed one. Quarter-end is nearly upon us, and the currency is 3.5% below its mid-2013 level against the eurol. Compared to end-2012, the European common currency has risen slightly more than 2.0%, and the euro’s advance since hitting a low in 2012 of $1.2041 equals roughly 12%. […] More
Central Bank Watch
Czech National Bank
September 26, 2013
The Czech two-week repo rate was kept at 0.05% where such has been since a 20-basis point cut in November 2012. This is a virtual zero interest rate policy, yet inflation (1.3% from a year ago) and real GDP growth (-1.3% year-over-year) remain low. The monetary policy bias remains one of ease, but this can […] More
Central Bank Watch
Taiwan Monetary Policy Left Unchanged after Quarterly Review
September 26, 2013
The Central Bank of the Republic of China retained a 1.875% key interest rate. It’s been at that level since the last of five 12.5-basis point hikes squeezed between June 2010 and June 2011. Officials reaffirmed “the current policy stance is conducive to price and financial stability as well as economic growth,” noting in particular that […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Concerns about Western Growth and Chinese Money Markets
September 26, 2013
The dollar fell 0.6% against the kiwi overnight but is otherwise narrowly mixed with upticks of 0.2% against the euro and yen and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc and sterling but downticks against other commodity-sensitive currencies like the loonie (0.1%) and Aussie dollar (0.2%). China’s yuan held unchanged. China’s central bank made another large liquidity […] More
