Next Week

September 27, 2013

The coming week bridges the end of the third quarter to the start of the final quarter of 2013.  The September purchasing manager surveys for many countries will be published, first covering manufacturing and later service-producing activities.  Germany and Britain also have construction PMI reports.  Japan has a very busy data calendar including the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations.  The U.S. releases labor market information on jobs, joblessness, and wage earnings, and from Euroland, investors will learn the latest trends in retail sales, unemployment and CPI inflation.

Central bank interest rate policy meetings are scheduled for the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, and central banks in Iceland, Romania and Poland.  Governor Kuroda of the BOJ and ECB President Draghi will be holding press conferences on Friday and Wednesday, respectively.  At least nine high Fed officials have speaking engagements during the week:  Bernanke, Dudley, Rosengren, Kocherlakota, Stein, Powell, Fisher, Williams, and Yellen, the presumed front-running candidate to follow Bernanke.

It’s possible but not assured that President Obama will finally disclose his ECB Chairperson choice, and the Washington scene in any case will command considerable market attention to see if a government shutdown can be averted in early October.  The risk of a debt default sometime around October 17 is a far more serious possibility.

Holiday closures are set for Tuesday-Friday in China and Thursday in Germany.  China celebrates the 64-year anniversary of the Communist Revolution; that longevity is now a mere 10 years short of the Soviet Union’s whole life span.  Germany observes the 23rd anniversary of the reunification of the East and West.

The list of upcoming Japanese data releases includes industrial production, motor vehicle output and sales, retail sales, real household spending and income, housing starts, construction orders, unemployment and jobs growth, labor cash earnings, currency reserves, and the aforementioned Tankan survey.

Some of the other Asian releases of note will be Filipino, Thai, Indonesian and South Korean consumer prices, Malaysian, Thai, and Filipino producer prices, South Korean, Indonesian, Thai and Malaysian trade, and Hong Kong retail sales.

Aside from the PMIs and monthly labor force surveys, scheduled U.S. statistics arriving next week include the Dallas Fed manufacturing index, auto sales, construction spending, factory orders, New York and midwestern regional PMIs, the ADP estimate of private-sector jobs, and weekly jobless insurance claims, chain store sales, mortgage applications, consumer comfort and energy inventories.

British reports will cover money growth, net mortgage lending, the Halifax and Hometrack house price indices, and PMIs for manufacturing, services and construction.  The Swiss current account, Danish GDO and Norwegian retail sales figures arrive, too.  In Eastern Europe, Romania and the Czech republic release retail sales, and Hungary and Romania report on their PPIs.  The Polish current account and Hungarian trade balance are scheduled as well.

Euroland reports consumer prices, unemployment retail sales and the PPI.  Within the area, Germany releases import prices, producer prices, unemployment, and retail sales.  French, Italian and Dutch PPI indices are due.  Germany, Cyprus and Portugal release industrial production, and Portugal and Greece report retail sales.

The Canadian data calendar shows monthly GDP, producer prices, raw material prices and the IVEY-PMI.  Consumer confidence in Mexico and Brazilian industrial output and trade balance are some of the notable Latin American releases.

Turkish trades, CPI and PPI are expected.  South of the equator finds building permits and M3 money growth scheduled in both Australia and New Zealand plus the trade balances from both South Africa and Australia.  Other Aussie reports will cover expected inflation, home sales, and private credit growth.

Copyright 2013, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.



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