Deeper Analysis
U.S. GDP Since Ground Zero
April 10, 2013
From an economic growth standpoint, the United States is the proverbial one-eyed man in the land of the blind. Real GDP is in the fourth quarter of 2012 was 2.5% greater than its pre-Great Recession peak some five years earlier. Similar comparisons for Japan, the euro area and Great Britain show net contractions of more […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Poland: A Pause in Rate Cuts but a Dovish Statement
April 10, 2013
The Monetary Policy Council left the record low 3.25% reference interest rate unchanged this month after four consecutive 25-basis point reductions in November-February followed by a 50-bp cut in March. A statement was released that noted continuing weak growth in early 2013 reflected in falling industrial production, subdued credit expansion, and just marginally firmer retail […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC March 20 Minutes: No Urgency to Rein in QE3
April 10, 2013
FOMC minutes were released at 13:00 GMT, five hours sooner than planned originally. My take-away from this 24-page document is that scattered calls by FOMC individuals to cut back on the size of monthly asset purchases or even end such altogether before end-2013 overstate the likelihood that policy will become less accommodative so soon. The […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Rare Chinese Trade Deficit
April 10, 2013
It’s been a pretty uneventful day so far. Main data development was news of a $884 million Chinese trade deficit in March that follows surpluses of $15.25 billion in February, $29.15 billion in January and $31.6 billion in December. On-year export growth slowed to 10.0% from 21.8% in February and 25.0% in January, while imports […] More
