Central Bank Watch
Bank of Mexico: Key Overnight Interest Rate Left at 4.5%
November 30, 2012
The streak of unchanged monetary policy following a cut in July 2009 has been extended, and the more sanguine tone of today’s statement from the Governing Board suggests that many more months may pass before a policy change is next enacted. Growth prospects have softened: “Economic activity in Mexico has maintained an upward trend, albeit […] More
Deeper Analysis
November in Figures
November 30, 2012
Ten-year yields fell in November, whereas short-term rates were steady. The dollar hardly changed on balance except in the case of the yen, which appreciated 3.3%. U.S. equities under-performed other stock markets. Japan’s Nikkei advanced 5.8%. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices climbed 3.1%, while gold closed the month 0.4% lower on balance. 10-Yr Yield […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Currencies Remain Mostly Calm Ahead of the U.S. Fiscal Waterfall
November 30, 2012
Net movement in the currencies of major advanced economies have been comparatively small during the second half of 2012. The yen has exhibited the greatest weakness, a slide of 3.2% against the dollar, but virtually all that loss occurred within the past month. The U.S. currency otherwise has depreciated 2.5% or less against the euro, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Monthend Delivers Plenty of New Information
November 30, 2012
The yen fell to seven-month lows of 107.7 per euro and 82.76 per dollar. The tone of fiscal cliff talks between the White House and Congressional leaders has turned more embittered and gloomy. The German parliament approved the latest aid plan for Greece. Japanese industrial production unexpectedly advanced 1.8% in October, but other released Japanese […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Market Dominated by Fiscal Cliff Perceptions
November 29, 2012
Investors want to believe that the full brunt of the U.S. fiscal cliff is going to be somehow averted. The evidence on that possibility continues to be mixed, but a better appetite for risk today is evident. Chinese share prices, down by a further 0.6% to a four-year low, have been an exception. However, worries […] More
Central Bank Watch
Brazil to Get a Prolonged Central Bank Interest Rate Plateau
November 28, 2012
Copom, the Central Bank of Brazil’s monetary policy committee, had cut the Selic rate at ten straight meetings by a total of 525 basis points to 7.25%. The last of those reductions announced October 10th was the also the smallest, just 25 basis points, and it was accompanied by a pledge to keep policy stable […] More
Central Bank Watch
Thailand Monetary Policy
November 28, 2012
From a high of 3.5% (August 2011 – November 2011), Thai monetary officials had implemented three 25-basis point cuts in the one-day repo rate. These were administered in November 2011, January 2011 and, most recently, at the prior monthly meeting in October by a 5-2 vote. At this month’s meeting, in contrast, the authorities decided […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Concern over Chinese Growth and U.S. Fiscal Cliff Threat
November 28, 2012
Mounting risk aversion has sent the euro lower and the yen higher. Commodities, stocks, and sovereign debt yields are lower. The Shanghai Composite index fell another 0.9% and further below the key 2000 level to 1974. The 10-year Japanese JGB yield dipped a basis point to a 9-year low of 0.72%. At $1.2900 per euro, […] More
Deeper Analysis
New OECD Growth Forecast
November 27, 2012
The 92nd semi-annual Economic Outlook from the Organization of Economic Co-Operation and Development has revised world GDP growth next year downward to 3.4% from a prior forecast of 4.2%. The growth estimate for calendar 2014 is 4.2%. Among the 34 countries that are in the OECD, growth is projected to climb only 1.4% in calendar […] More
Central Bank Watch
Another Interest Rate Cut in Hungary
November 27, 2012
Officials at Magyar Nemzeti Bank sliced their Bank Rate by 25 basis points for a fourth consecutive month. The action, which leaves the rate level at 6.0%, had been widely anticipated, and officials left open the door to more rate reductions if economic trends develop as they expect. Expected developments in inflation and financial markets […] More
