Deeper Analysis
Factory Conditions Continued to Deteriorate in the U.S. and Euroland
August 1, 2012
It was disappointing but predictable that Euroland’s downturn in manufacturing continued in July. Germany, France, Italy and Austria had lower readings in July than June, and each was below the 50 no-change line. In a surprise, Germany’s score of 43.0, a 37-month low, indicated a steeper rate of contraction than last month in France, Italy, […] More
Central Bank Watch
ECB and Bank of England Previews
August 1, 2012
Six bold words last week from ECB President Draghi gave desperate investors hope: “Believe me, it will be enough.” As Thursday’s policy decision and press conference approach, however, markets suspect an element of bluff and with good reason. It is almost universally agreed that the common currency experiment was a colossal error on almost every […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC: Continuing Sober Talk but No Fresh Initiatives Unveiled this Month
August 1, 2012
The FOMC statement downgraded its economic assessment and the specific view on jobs growth, but the market view was correct that new action was unlikely. Officials didn’t even modify the late 2014 or later forecast for its initial federal funds rate hike, and Jeffrey Lacker, a voting branch president, again even object to inclusion of […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
August 1, 2012
The FOMC will likely concede the more difficult U.S. and global economic outlook, but most analysts expect actual policy initiatives to be more symbolic than real. The easiest gesture would be to push the projected likely start of rate tightening further into the future. Such has been no sooner than “late 2014” since January 2012 […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Muted Market Response to PMI Data
August 1, 2012
Investors are marking time, looking past today’s data to the results of upcoming FOMC, ECB and Bank of England decisions. The dollar is unchanged against the euro and Swiss franc, up 0.3% versus sterling and 0.1% against the yen and yuan, and off 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1% relative to the New Zealand, Australian and Canadian […] More
