Deeper Analysis
Japanese September Tankan Survey
September 30, 2012
10,722 companies participated in the latest quarterly survey done by Japan’s central bank. In the table below which documents the evolution of results, abbreviations used in the first four columns of data stand for big manufacturers (Bm), big non-manufacturer (Bnm), small manufacturers (Sm) and small non-manufacturers (Smn). Where an “a” or no suffix is […] More
Deeper Analysis
September and 3Q12 in Figures
September 29, 2012
Aided by monetary stimulus, most long- and short-term interest rates fell during the third quarter including in September. Impressive stock market rallies happened in 3Q except in Japan where the Nikkei lost 1.5% on balance. The dollar fell across the board both in the latest month and quarter. Gold and oil rose sharply in the […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
September 28, 2012
Central banks in the U.K., euro area, Poland, Australia, Japan and Iceland hold monetary policy meetings next week, and the FOMC releases minutes from its mid-September meeting. Chinese markets are closed all week for the National Holiday commemorating the 63rd anniversary of the Communist revolution. Germany celebrates Unity Day on Wednesday. Australia is closed Monday […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Currency Implications of an Obama Win and Other Uncertain Matters
September 28, 2012
The assumption that Barrack Obama would be a single-term president appeared to be one of the safer bets that I made early this year. Historically speaking, second terms have been difficult to secure when U.S. unemployment was above 7.0%. Economic growth in the second term of a presidential year, not 3Q or 4Q, has in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lots of Released Data on Final Business Day of the Quarter
September 28, 2012
Share prices rose in the Pacific Rim but are mostly lower in Europe. Investors are again focused on Spain, where the 2013 budget was unveiled yesterday and bank stress test results are due today. The fiscal deficit is projected at 4.5% of GDP, down from 6.3% in 2012. Italian Prime Minister Monti opposes new conditions […] More
Central Bank Watch
Czech National Bank Eases
September 27, 2012
By a vote of five to two, monetary policy makers approved a halving of the two-week repo rate to 0.25%. The previous reduction in June also followed a split vote by the Board, that time of 4-3. The dissenters did not want to cut. Headline inflation will likely be slightly above the 1-3% target range […] More
Central Bank Watch
Romanian Monetary Policy
September 27, 2012
Policymakers at the National Bank of Romania left their main interest rate at 5.25% in spite of a significantly greater on-year 3.9% rise of consumer prices because The CPI spike should recede given Romania’s sizable negative output gap, The CPI spike does not reflect an underlying deterioration but rather supply-side food shocks and an adverse […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Improved Market Psychology
September 27, 2012
Share prices, commodities, commodity-sensitive currencies, and sovereign debt yields are higher as tomorrow’s business calendar quarter-end approaches. Stocks in Europe have thus far recovered 0.9% in France and Italy, 0.6% in Spain, 0.5% in Germany, and 0.4% in Great Britain. A key impetus for this turnaround came from a bigger-than-anticipated liquidity injection by the People’s […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Street Protests Send Share Prices Lower
September 26, 2012
Greece and Spain, where protestors against austerity have taken to the streets, are back in the spotlight. Disparaging comments yesterday by Philly Fed President Plosser about the effectiveness of quantitative easing had transformed a winning session in equities into a losing one by the close. Resumed gloom about Europe has carried that adverse momentum into […] More
Central Bank Watch
Further Monetary Easing in Hungary
September 25, 2012
August’s first Hungarian central bank rate cut since April 2010 has been followed up with a second reduction of 25 basis points. The deposit rate and two-week MNB bill rate are both now at 6.5%. Analysts had been split between those expecting Magyar Nemzeti Bank officials not to change rates this month and others looking […] More
