Next Week

July 30, 2010

Central bank interest rate meetings are scheduled in Australia, the euro area, the U.K., Peru, Romania Indonesia and the Czech Republic, but none is expected to announce a change of policy.   Canada will be closed for Civic Day on Monday.

The first week of the month is naturally PMI week.  Monday will see a parade of manufacturing purchasing manager indices from Australia, Euroland, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, the Netherlands, Ireland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey, Russia, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Taiwan, South Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, and the United States.  Britain follows on Tuesday with a PMI reading for the construction sector.  Arriving service-sector PMIs on Wednesday will cover Japan, Australia, Great Britain, Euroland, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Russia, India, China, Hong Kong, and the United States.  Canada reports a composite manufacturing and non-manufacturing IVEY-PMI score on Friday.

The other big data focus is the monthly U.S. labor force survey on Friday and related previous releases of the ADP private employment estimate on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.  The consensus is calling for an uptick of the unemployment rate and a decline of nearly 100K jobs.  Other scheduled U.S. data reports next week will cover construction spending, auto sales, pending home sales, factory orders, personal income and spending, monthly chain store sales, and consumer credit, plus weekly figures on energy inventories, consumer confidence, mortgage applications, and chain store sales.

Euroland will release producer prices and retail sales.  Germany reports industrial production and orders.  Italy announces GDP.  French trade and fiscal budget figures are due, and so are Dutch consumer prices and industrial production.

Britain’s data slate includes industrial output, producer prices and the NIESR estimate for July GDP.  Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden will release unemployment statistics.  Swiss consumer prices and Norwegian industrial production are due as well.  Hungarian and Czech trade and industrial production data releases are also on the data calendar.  Turkey releases both consumer and producer prices.

The Bank of Japan releases figures on the monetary base, while that country’s Cabinet Office reports the index of leading and coincident indicators.

Other Pacific Rim releases will be Australian retail sales, trade numbers, job ads, home prices and building permits, New Zealand unemployment, and Indian, Indonesian, and Malaysian trades, and Indonesian, South Korean, and Taiwanese consumer prices.

The Canadian labor force survey will be released ninety minutes before the U.S. jobs report on Friday.  Canadian building permits are due next week also.  So are Brazilian trade and industrial output figures and Mexican consumer confidence.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


2 Responses to “Next Week”

  1. yalnand says:

    Thanks Larry. What is your take on USDJPY where is it heading ?

  2. larrygreenberg says:

    I’m not expecting a significant change in dollar/yen in the near term. The yen is approaching problematic levels for Japanese exporters, raising the possibility of actions by officials to limit additional appreciation. Nothing much has changed to remove the yen’s bid tone, so a significant weakening also seems doubtful.