Central Bank Watch
Bank of Japan Business Survey Results Better Than Expected
June 30, 2010
The so-called Tankan survey, a quarterly snapshot of business confidence, conditions and expectations, has improved sharply and persistently since hitting bottom in the first quarter of 2009. Gains this past quarter not only surpassed what firms were expecting to occur when last polled three months ago but also exceeded recent projections by street analysts. This […] More
Deeper Analysis
June and Second Quarter in Figures
June 30, 2010
The impression of a strong dollar in June is not corroborated by its changes since end-May. The advance against the euro, while exceeding 10% in the quarter, was smaller than 1.0% in the final month of the quarter. And the dollar lost ground against the yen both in the second quarter and the month of […] More
Central Bank Watch
Romania’s Monetary Policy Rate Kept Steady
June 30, 2010
Credit policy in Romania was left on hold as expected. It had been in easing mode until early last month. Policymakers had cut their key interest rate five times by a combined 225 basis points in 2009 and four more times earlier in 2010 by a further 175 bps. In contrast to a cyclical peak […] More
Deeper Analysis
More Evidence of a North American Slowdown
June 30, 2010
According to the ADP estimate, private employment increased just 13K in June, about a fifth as much as expected. The measly rise in June was the smallest since a 3K uptick in February and compares to 51K per month in March-May. The data bode poorly for Friday’s Labor Department monthly survey. According to the latter, […] More
Central Bank Watch
Polish Monetary Settings Unchanged But CPI Forecast Revised Upward
June 30, 2010
Narodowy Bank policymakers are keeping the central bank reference rate at 3.5%. A year has now gone by since the last of six rate reductions. The first of these in November 2008 and final three in February, March and June of 2009 were by 25 basis points, while those announced in December 2008 and January […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Some Better News From Europe
June 30, 2010
At the ECB’s 3-month tender, banks only requested EUR 131.9 billion of liquidity to replace EUR 442 billion of maturing one-year funds. This lower-than-projected amount results in a EUR 310 billion net withdrawal, suggesting banking sector strains may not be as severe as imagined. British business investment last quarter rose 7.8% and was 7.7% lower […] More
Deeper Analysis
Conference Board Data Moves Markets
June 29, 2010
The global data calendar today was a heavy one. While including several key Japanese end-of month releases, euro area sentiment indices, and the Case-Shiller house price index for 20 metropolitan areas, two indicators compiled by the Conference Board stole the show. The CB has crunched a U.S. index of leading economic indicators for years, which […] More
Larry's Blog
So Many Economic Problems and No Easy Solutions
June 29, 2010
The U.S. economy performed worse during the past thirty years than between 1950 and 1980 even though the more recent bloc of time had two fewer recessions. The table below compares growth in real GDP, jobs, and consumer prices in the two periods and additionally isolates the past ten years. All three economic variables have […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Stocks Tumble Around the World
June 29, 2010
Equities plunged 4.6% in China following a revision to the economy’s index of leading economic indicators to 0.3% from 1.7% reported originally. This is a recently developed indicator of the Conference Board, which has been calculating a similar statistic for the United States and Europe. The Chinese market’s steep losses spearheaded other sharp stock market […] More
Central Bank Watch
Israeli Policy Interest Rate Left at 1.5%
June 28, 2010
For a third straight month, the Bank of Israel decided not to implement a fifth rise of the short-term borrowing rate. Such remains at 1.5%, after 25-basis points implemented last August, November, December and March. A statement from the Bank of Israel repeats the view made in the April and May statements that present policy […] More
