Quad-Regional Economic Uncertainty

May 15, 2014

The second quarter of 2014 is half completed, and the unofficial summer trading season in foreign exchange begins in two weeks.  Summer trading currency traders are coming and going from summer holidaysl has unique properties, notably a drop in volume and participant continuity.  Although several important forex trend reversals were conceived in summer, a bigger […] More

Investors Worried about Europe and China

June 25, 2012

The last week of June started on a down note, with softer share prices, bond yields, European currencies and oil prices.  There have been few data releases so far this Monday, but three U.S. indicators are scheduled. Press reports over the weekend claim that China’s economy has slowed more abruptly than official data imply.  According […] More

Geopolitical Tensions Boost Commodity Prices

February 21, 2011

North American markets will be closed today to commemorate President’s Day in the United States and Family Day in Canada.  Wintry weather has returned to the Northeast. China too has caught the contagious bug of social unrest.  President Hu urged tighter controls of the internet.  High food costs, as in the middle east, have been […] More

Chinese Reserve Requirements Tightened as G20 Finance Ministers Meet

February 18, 2011

Reserve ratios for large Chinese banks were lifted to 19.5% from 19.0%, effective February 24.  There had been six increases of the ratio during 2010, the final three of which were crammed into five weeks in November and December.  Last October, December and January, officials at the Peoples Bank of China raised interest rates by […] More

Swissy Ending a Strong Year on a Strong Note

December 30, 2010

Most markets will be shut tomorrow in observance of the new year. The dollar lost another 0.7% against the Swiss franc and set a new record high of CHF 0.9372.  The franc is 19.1% stronger than its end-2009 level against the euro. The Chinese yuan advanced 0.3% against the dollar, bringing its cumulative appreciation in […] More

Another Tightening of Chinese Reserve Requirements

December 10, 2010

The dollar is unchanged against the euro, Canadian dollar, and Chinese yuan but has dropped 0.5% against the kiwi, 0.4% relative to the Australian dollar and sterling, 0.2% versus the yen and 0.1% against the Swiss franc. Equities in Asia fell by 1.0% in Indonesia, 0.9% in Malaysia, 0.8% in Singapore, 0.7% in Japan, and […] More

Dollar Narrowly Mixed Ahead of Bernanke Breakfast Speech

October 15, 2010

The dollar is up 0.2% against the kiwi and loonie, up 0.1% against the Swiss franc, unchanged relative to the euro and Australian dollar, down 0.1% against the yuan, and 0.3% weaker against the yen and sterling.  Aside from the speeches by Bernanke, Lockhart and former Fed Vice Chairman Kohn, the United States will be […] More

Shifting Geographical Sources of Global Growth

October 7, 2010

The IMF’s October 2010 World Economic Outlook released in conjunction with this week’s IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington contains useful information for sorting world growth trends over the past two decades.  Growth rates in the table below are expressed in annualized terms, that is percent per annum.  Figures in the right-most column embody IMF growth […] More

Dollar Slips Against Yen, Euro, and Swiss Franc

August 16, 2010

The dollar lost 1.3% against the Swissy, 0.7% relative to the yen and 0.5% versus the euro.  The greenback is steady against the Canadian dollar and sterling but up by 0.5% against the kiwi, 0.2% against the Australian dollar and 0.1% versus the Chinese yuan, which has retreated past 6.8000 per dollar. Market chatter about […] More

U.S. Factory PMI Reading Below Euro Area Score for First Time in 19 Months

August 2, 2010

Manufacturing activity expanded at a slower rate, while the growth in Euroland manufacturing accelerated last month.  The dichotomy in those trends makes sense in light of the the dollar’s 27.5% advance from 1.5149 per euro in late November to 1.1878 in early June.  Both regions had solid above-50 readings between 55 and 57, but Europe’s […] More