Larry's Blog
Assessing the Greater Long-Term U.S. Price Risk: Inflation or Deflation
July 6, 2010
The quirky discontinuities in U.S. tax law have made 2010 a critically important year for household financial planning. A critical assumption in this process involves price stability. Some experts believe the jump in Federal deficit spending and ballooning Fed balance sheet will cause a return to high inflation. I’m in the camp that anticipates continuing […] More
Deeper Analysis
Europe Doing Better Relative to the United States
July 6, 2010
According to purchasing manager survey data, Euroland’s rate of expansion last month faltered by less the rate of U.S. expansion in non-manufacturing and manufacturing. The algebraic sum of the two sets of PMI spreads, shown in the right-most column below, was minus 1.1, giving Euroland its best relative advantage since November. The spread for services […] More
Central Bank Watch
Australian Monetary Policy Left Unchanged
July 6, 2010
The Reserve Bank of Australia Official Cash Rate (OCR) was retained at 4.5% for a second straight monthly meeting. Six previous increases of 25 basis points each were implemented in October 2009, November, December, March 2010, April and May. A statement from Governor Glenn Stevens reiterated that monetary policy settings are considered appropriate, seeing as […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Stocks Rebound in Asia and Europe on Bottom-Fishing
July 6, 2010
U.S. traders returning after the Independence Day holiday weekend will find the dollar marginally softer than its closing levels last Friday, with drops of 0.8% and 0.6% against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, 0.4% against the Canadian dollar, but just 0.3% versus the euro and 0.1% relative to the Swiss franc and sterling. Dollar/yen […] More
