Less U.S.-Advantageous PMI Spreads in August
September 3, 2015
In July when Grexit fever was at a high burn, the sum of the U.S.-minus-Eurozone purchasing manager survey differential had jumped to 6.6 points from 2.6 points the month before, but 80% of that increase was reversed in August. It was reported on Monday that the U.S. manufacturing PMI declined 1.6 points last month while Euroland’s edged back just 0.1 point. Today saw the release of the U.S. non-manufacturing PMI, showing a 1.3-point decline juxtaposed against a 0.4-point rise in Euroland’s services PMI.
In the U.S. survey, the jobs and prices components fell by 3.6 and 2.9 points respectively. A 50.9 reading on prices implies scant upward pressure on prices just two weeks before Fed officials decide whether to hike the Fed funds rate. Euroland’s services PMI score of 54.4 matches June’s 49-month high. The Italian reading of 54.6 was at a 65-month high, and the German 54.9 reading was the best score since March. The Irish and Spanish readings averaged 60.9, and the French index, while just 50.6, was above the 50 no change threshold for the third straight month.
PMIs | U.S. | Ezone | U.S. | Ezone | Sum of | ||
Services | Services | Spread | Mf’g | Mf’g | Spread | Spreads | |
Jan 2012 | 56.8 | 50.4 | +6.4 | 54.1 | 48.8 | +5.3 | +10.9 |
Feb | 56.1 | 48.8 | +7.3 | 51.9 | 49.0 | +2.9 | +10.2 |
March | 55.0 | 49.2 | +5.8 | 53.3 | 47.7 | +5.6 | +11.4 |
April | 53.7 | 46.9 | +6.8 | 54.1 | 45.9 | +8.2 | +15.0 |
May | 54.1 | 46.7 | +7.4 | 52.5 | 45.1 | +7.4 | +14.8 |
June | 52.7 | 47.1 | +5.6 | 50.2 | 45.1 | +5.1 | +10.7 |
July | 52.9 | 47.9 | +5.0 | 50.5 | 44.0 | +6.5 | +11.5 |
August | 54.3 | 47.2 | +7.1 | 50.7 | 45.1 | +5.6 | +12.7 |
Sept | 55.2 | 46.1 | +9.1 | 51.6 | 46.1 | +5.5 | +14.6 |
October | 54.8 | 46.0 | +8.8 | 51.7 | 45.4 | +6.3 | +15.1 |
November | 54.8 | 46.7 | +8.1 | 49.9 | 46.2 | +3.7 | +11.8 |
December | 55.7 | 47.8 | +7.9 | 50.2 | 46.1 | +4.1 | +12.0 |
Jan 2013 | 55.2 | 48.6 | +6.6 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +11.8 |
February | 54.8 | 47.9 | +8.1 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +13.3 |
March | 54.5 | 46.4 | +8.1 | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | +12.8 |
April | 53.8 | 47.0 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | +10.1 |
May | 54.0 | 47.2 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | +8.5 |
June | 53.4 | 48.3 | +5.1 | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | +8.8 |
July | 55.9 | 49.8 | +6.1 | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | +10.7 |
August | 57.9 | 50.7 | +7.2 | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | +12.1 |
Sept | 54.5 | 52.2 | +2.3 | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | +7.2 |
October | 55.1 | 51.6 | +3.5 | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | +8.8 |
November | 54.1 | 51.2 | +2.9 | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | +8.3 |
December | 53.0 | 51.0 | +2.0 | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | +5.8 |
Jan 2014 | 54.0 | 51.6 | +2.4 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | -0.3 |
February | 52.5 | 52.6 | -0.1 | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
March | 53.7 | 52.1 | +1.6 | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | +3.0 |
April | 55.3 | 53.1 | +2.2 | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | +4.1 |
May | 56.1 | 53.2 | +2.9 | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | +6.3 |
June | 56.3 | 52.8 | +3.5 | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | +7.4 |
July | 57.9 | 54.2 | +3.7 | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | +8.3 |
August | 58.6 | 53.1 | +5.5 | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | +12.9 |
Sept | 58.1 | 52.4 | +5.7 | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | +11.5 |
October | 56.9 | 52.1 | +4.8 | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | +12.1 |
November | 58.8 | 51.1 | +7.7 | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | +15.2 |
December | 56.5 | 51.6 | +4.9 | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | +9.4 |
Jan 2015 | 56.7 | 52.7 | +4.0 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | +6.5 |
February | 56.9 | 53.7 | +3.2 | 52.9 | 51.0 | +1.9 | +5.1 |
March | 56.5 | 54.2 | +2.3 | 51.5 | 52.2 | -0.7 | +1.6 |
April | 57.8 | 54.1 | +3.7 | 51.5 | 52.0 | -0.5 | +3.2 |
May | 55.7 | 53.8 | +1.9 | 52.8 | 52.2 | +0.6 | +2.5 |
June | 56.0 | 54.4 | +1.6 | 53.5 | 52.5 | +1.0 | +2.6 |
July | 60.3 | 54.0 | +6.3 | 52.7 | 52.4 | +0.3 | +6.6 |
August | 59.0 | 54.4 | +4.6 | 51.1 | 52.3 | -1.2 | +3.4 |
Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.