Next Week
October 23, 2009
Investors may be treated to one or more central bank rate hikes next week. The Bank of Israel, which is one of two monetary authorities to start lifting rates, could implement a second 25-bp increase after pausing at its last meeting. The other chance for a rate hike is in Norway, where officials announced after their September meeting that an increase of the 1.25% benchmark rate had been considered by not adopted. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is yet a third central bank holding a policy meeting in the final week of October with a chance of a rate hike, although I tend to think that one will be delayed further. Other central bank with meetings next week in Japan, Poland, Malaysia and India are safer bets for making no rate adjustment. The Bank of Japan’s meeting is a special one, nonetheless, since a semi-annual economic outlook will be released containing new price and growth forecasts. A press conference led by Governor Shirakawa will follow meeting on Friday.
Scheduled U.S. data next week are led by the advance third-quarter GDP figures and include the Case-Shiller house price index, new home sales, the quarterly employment cost index, personal income and spending, the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment, durable goods orders, Midwestern and New York PMI readings, and the Richmond, Chicago, Dallas, and K.C. Fed indices. In addition, the usual assortment of weekly figures on jobless claims, chain store sales, mortgage applications, consumer confidence, and energy inventories will be eagerly combed as well.
Japan releases considerable data in the final week of each month, including retail sales, consumer prices, household spending, the Shoko Chukin index, industrial output, auto sales, corporate service prices, the PMI-manufacturing index, housing starts, and construction orders,.
The euro area will report money aggregates and credit growth, overall economic sentiment, consumer confidence, business confidence, unemployment, consumer prices, and the retail PMI. Each of the bloc’s four biggest members — Germany, France, Italy, and Spain — reports consumer prices. So will Belgium, which also announces GDP. Germany releases consumer confidence, retail sales, unemployment and import prices, while France and Italy publish PPI data. Italy and the Netherlands report business sentiment.
From Britain, investors will receive news on two house price measures (Nationwide and Hometrack) as well as the CBI survey of retailers, M4 growth, consumer confidence, and mortgage approvals.
Sweden announces consumer confidence, the trade balance, producer prices and retail sales. Norway reports unemployment and retail sales, and Switzerland publishes the index of leading economic indicators and the consumption index. Hungary reports producer prices.
In commodity-sensitive economies, Australia releases quarterly consumer prices, business sentiment and producer prices as well as monthly private credit growth. New Zealand business sentiment, building permits, and business sentiment are due. So is South African consumer prices, private credit growth and trade figures. The slate of Canadian data includes monthly GDP, producer prices and raw material prices.
In Asia following this week’s heavy slate of Chinese figures, investors will get GDP, industrial production and index of leading indicators from South Korea. The will receive as well unemployment and industrial production from Singapore, Thai trades and industrial output, Hong Kong and Filipino trades, and Taiwan’s index of leading economic indicators. Brazil reports the current account.
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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