Bonds and Stocks
November in Figures
November 30, 2009
November was a spectacular month for gold prices and saw North American and Japanese stocks follow incredibly divergent paths. Short-term interest rates remained anchored at very low interest rates, and bond yields, which had risen in October, relinquished all those increases and more. The dollar, pound and kiwi traded significantly lower against the euro, Swissy, […] More
Central Bank Watch
Australian Interest Rate Preview
November 30, 2009
Most analysts had comfortably assumed that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce a third 25-basis point rate hike at 01:30 GMT on Tuesday in follow-through to similar 25-bp increases on October 6 and November 3rd. That remains the baseline consensus, but confidence in the forecast has diminished. The case for a hike rests […] More
Central Bank Watch
Mexican Monetary Policy on Hold
November 30, 2009
Mexican monetary authorities left their key benchmark interest steady at 4.5% after Friday’s monthly policy meeting. The result was expected. The key rate has been at its present level since a cut of 25 basis points announced on July 17th. That had been the seventh straight cut, the sum of which totaled 375 basis points […] More
Deeper Analysis
Canadian GDP Growth and PPI Inflation Lower Than Expected
November 30, 2009
Canada’s recession ended only barely last quarter, as net exports exerted a 5.3 percentage point (ppt) drag on the annualized growth of GDP. Growth of 0.4% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) reflected positive contributions of 1.8 ppts from personal consumption, 1.9 ppts from government spending, 0.5 ppts each from residential investment and all […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: Continuing Confusion Over Implications of Dubai Debt Crisis
November 30, 2009
$64,000 question is whether Abu Dhabi will underwrite Dubai’s debt. Stocks rebounded in Asia but fell further in Europe. Equities recovered 3.8% in China, 2.9% in Japan, 1.8% in India, 3.3% in Hong Kong, and 2.8% in Australia. The Paris Cac, German Dax and British Ftse are trading 1.1%, 1.0%, and 0.8% lower. The dollar […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
November 28, 2009
The coming week will be preoccupied with further fallout from Dubai’s debt crisis. The data calendar will be dominated by various purchasing manager indices in North America, Europe, and Asia and the monthly U.S. labor force survey. The Reserve Bank of Australia probably will lift its key interest rate for a third time, while central […] More
Central Bank Watch
3.5% Policy Central Bank Rate in Poland Retained As Expected
November 27, 2009
Narodowy Bank Polski left its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%, matching the decisions it made at meetings in July, August, September and October. Previously, a total decline of 250 basis points from 6.0% was engineered via decreases of 25 basis points last November, then 75 bps each in December and January followed by three more […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: Global Financial Market Turmoil Continues Over Dubai
November 27, 2009
Stocks fell 4.8% in South Korea and Hong Kong, 3.2% in Japan and Taiwan, 3.0% in China, 2.9% in Australia, and 1.8% in South Africa. The Ftse and Cac40 are 0.4% lower, and the Dax has lost another 0.4%. Stock futures point to a sharp catch-up decline in U.S. equities, which did not trade yesterday. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: Dubai Default Worries Hammer Markets in Asia and Europe
November 26, 2009
Equities plunged 4.0% in China, 2.8% in Indonesia, 2.0% in India, 1.8% in Hong Kong, 1.4% in Thailand, 4.1% in Vietnam, 1.1% in Singapore, and 0.6% in Japan. The British Ftse, Paris Cac and German Dax arre 1.9%, 1.8% and 1.7% weaker. U.S. markets will be closed for Thanksgiving Day. Amid a resurgence of risk […] More
Deeper Analysis
Foreign Exchange Insights: Fed Comments On the Dollar
November 25, 2009
Federal Reserve officials are not responsible for exchange rate policy. That falls under the Treasury’s jurisdiction. Thus it was the Treasury that engineered the dollar devaluations of December 1971 and February 1973, which ended dollar-gold convertibility and the era of fixed dollar rates against other major currencies. Fed officials seldom comment on the dollar, but […] More
