U.S. Real Economic Growth Since Truman — Updated
July 31, 2009
Today’s GDP report included extensive benchmark data revisions dating back the late 1940’s. In light of wide interest in a series of previous postings on this site that compared U.S. economic performances under different presidencies, I have recalculated percent per annum real GDP growth rates. Barrack Obama has considerable ground to recoup to avoid overseeing the weakest performance of all, since GDP fell by a whopping 3.8% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in his first two quarters between 4Q08 and 2Q09. Even if real GDP expanded at a 3.0% annualized rate for the ensuing 3.5 years, growth during his first term would average just 2.1% per annum, which is weak by historical standards. If Obama manages to win a second term and growth averages 3.0% per annum over the next 7.5 years to end-2016, GDP over all eight years of the Obama presidency would still have expanded at a subpar 2.6% per annum. And with the long-term structural shifts that have reduced potential U.S. GDP growth, I strongly doubt that the economy can achieve 3.0% per annum growth during the next 7-1/2 years. To draw an analogy to a baseball game, the Obama presidency had about eight runs scored against it in the very first inning and now faces a very challenging grind out a win by the end of the game.
| Presidency | GDP Growth Per Annum, % |
| Obama | -3.8% |
| Bush43 | +1.9% |
| Clinton | +3.8% |
| Bush41 | +2.1% |
| Reagan | +3.5% |
| Carter | +3.2% |
| Ford | +2.6% |
| Nixon | +2.8% |
| Johnson | +5.1% |
| Kennedy | +5.2% |
| Eisenhower | +2.5% |
| Truman (1Q47-4Q52) | +4.7% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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