Treasury yields

Brief Note on Fiscal Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates

October 6, 2014

Hindsight is insightful as well as twenty-twenty.  While thinning out my files over the weekend, I came across an article from the April 28, 2010 issue of the Financial Times entitled Clock is ticking on Japan’s low debt yields.  The two self-explanatory lead sentences provide the gist of the entire text: It is one of […] More

Stronger Dollar, Weaker Bonds and Stocks Ahead of FOMC Minutes

August 21, 2013

Investors hope to get fresh insights into what the FOMC might announce next month on QE3 from minutes of the prior FOMC meeting, which get published at 18:00 GMT today. Meantime, the dollar has risen 0.6% against the kiwi, 0.5% versus the Australian dollar, 0.3% relative to the loonie and 0.2% against the yen, euro […] More

U.S. GDP Expanding Too Slowly to Pose Major Threat of Inflation

May 30, 2013

Between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, U.S. real GDP, nominal GDP, and the core personal consumption expenditure price deflator rose by 1.8%, 3.4%, and 1.3%.  Each of these increases was historically low and down from respective advances of 2.4%, 4.4%, and 1.9% in the previous statement year to 1Q12.  […] More

January 14, 2000: A Date to Remember

August 23, 2011

January 14, 2000 is a well-suited statistical benchmark for assessing the U.S. economy.  If February 3, 1959 was the day the music died as immortalized in Don McLean’s ballad American Pie, calling January 14, 2000 the day the American economy died is only a slight overstatement because the before-and-after performances around that milestone are so […] More

Bond Yields, Debt Supply, and Inflation

April 19, 2011

The ten-year bond yields in the United States, Germany, Britain, and Japan remain low despite higher inflation and rising concern about the sustainability of excessive fiscal deficits and debt.  Bond spreads have not shifted materially among these four advanced economies, either. The table below compares the current sovereign ten-year yields to period averages since 1990. […] More