Japanese CPI
Spotlight on Middle East Tensions and Fed Policy Intentions
April 19, 2024
As promised, Israel responded to Iran’s prior missile attack, but the retaliation thus far has been tempered — just a few drone attacks against an Iranian military base near Isfahan that were shot down. Damages were light, and neither Israeli nor Iranian media are fanning the incident, which provoked initial financial confusion that helped depress […] More
Growing Confidence that Central Bank Interest Rates Are Coming
March 22, 2024
Fed Chairman’s reassuring press conference, central bank rate cuts in Switzerland, Brazil, Mexico, and the Czech Republic, and a hint from the German Bundesbank president that the ECB Governing Council might consider easing by early summer have lifted the mood of investors. The dollar has withstood this shift in sentiment. The weighted DXY dollar index […] More
Financial Markets Remain Unsettled in Wake of Powell and Biden Speeches
October 20, 2023
Despite conceding that officials are carefully monitoring the recent sharp increase in bond yields, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s message remained hawkish overall. Inflation is still too high, a restrictive stance will be needed for quite a while longer, and further rate hikes may be required. The U.S. economy has shown resilience in the face of […] More
Investors Uneasy about Several Recessionary Risks
September 22, 2023
Preliminary September purchasing manager survey results out today attest to deepening economic weakness in Europe. Euroland’s composite PMI reading of 47.1 after 46.7 in August and 47.0 in July are consistent with a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter drop in GDP in 3Q. Such would represent a fourth straight listless quarter following a 0.1% dip in the final […] More
Move Out of Equities Drives Back Long-Term Interest Rates
August 18, 2023
Ten-year sovereign debt yields dropped overnight by 11 basis points in Italy, 10 bps in Germany, France and Spain, 7 bps in Great Britain, 4 bps in the United States and 1 basis point in Japan. Global equity markets experienced their most difficult week in five months. The tide didn’t turn as the week draws […] More
Dollar Firm With Focus on Inflation and Central Bank Policy
July 21, 2023
The dollar rose overnight by 1.2% against the yen, 0.8% and 0.6% relative to the New Zealand and Australian currencies, 0.7% versus the Turkish lira and 0.2% vis-a-vis sterling. The euro kept pace with the dollar, and the Russian ruble jumped 1.1%. These movements correlated well with perceived monetary policy stances. A full percentage point […] More
Weaker Growth, Lessening Inflation, But Central Banks Not Done Tightening
June 23, 2023
Preliminary purchasing manager survey findings for June revealed a surprisingly steep softening of growth and subsiding inflation. However, inflation remains well above target and is exhibiting particular downside rigidity in the all-important service sectors. A slew of central bank policy reviews over the past two weeks elicited hawkish announcements for the most part. All in […] More
Dollar a Bit Weaker
May 19, 2023
The dollar is 0.8% and 0.6% weaker today against the New Zealand and Australian currencies and has also settled back 0.4% against the Chinese yuan, 0.3% versus the Swiss franc, 0.2% relative to the euro and sterling and 0.1% relative to the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. European equity advances so far this Friday range […] More
Fresh Banking Concerns Eclipse Some Encouraging Purchasing Manager Survey Results
March 24, 2023
Investor sentiment hit another air pocket in Friday’s session, with the banking sector absorbing the greatest shock. For example, the share price of Deutsche Bank AG has tumbled 11%, and overall stock markets in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain show declines currently that exceed 2.5% from Thursday’s close. A catalyst for this flight to safety […] More
Prices, Consumer Confidence, and Recessionary Worries
January 20, 2023
On this eve of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, investors are digesting the latest inflation data, perusing reports on consumer confidence, but also continuing to worry about the risk of recession to which many economists in both the private and public sectors ascribe better than even odds. The global economy is coming off a […] More
