German GDP
Reduced Fear of Korean War
August 15, 2017
Today is the 72nd anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japan, and markets there are closed. Reported remarks by the leaders of both Korean nations dispelled fear of an imminent resumption of war. Markets were also closed today in India for a holiday commemorating the 70th anniversary if independence and Italy for Assumption Day. The dollar […] More
U.S. Political Landscape Goes Deeper into the Rabbit Hole
May 12, 2017
President Trump gave an entirely different explanation for the firing of the FBI director than had other officials earlier. Democrats are crying foul while Republicans are standing by their man. Euro area industrial production fell 0.1% in March for a second straight month, undershooting expectations. Output was unchanged in the first quarter and also flat […] More
Sovereign Debt Yields Fall Further Despite FOMC Minutes
February 23, 2017
10-year sovereign debt yields are down 5 basis points in The Netherlands, 4 bps in France (helped by a Macron/Bayrou political agreement to support one another against the Far Right), 3 bps in Britain, and 2 bps in the U.S. and Germany. Minutes from the FOMC meeting of January 31/February 01 reveal a widely held […] More
Investors Continue to Mark Time Ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium
August 24, 2016
Overnight the dollar rose 0.2% against the euro and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc but slipped 0.3% against the kiwi and 0.2% relative to sterling. There’s been no net change vis-a-vis the yen or Aussie dollar. Share prices rose 0.7% in Singapore, 0.3% in India and 0.6% in Japan but fell 0.7% in Hong Kong […] More
Pound Up on Reduced Brexit Fears
May 24, 2016
A new phone poll by Daily Telegraph revealed a widening margin of voters favoring Britain staying in the European Union (55% to 42%), and sterling rose 0.9% against the dollar in response. The U.S. currency otherwise climbed 0.9% against the Aussie dollar, 0.6% versus the kiwi, 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro and yen, 0.2% relative to […] More
Fresh Focus on Chinese Policy
February 23, 2016
China again has been the straw that stirred things us. The catalyst today was the largest daily reduction of the yuan’s fixing value by officials at the People’s Bank of China in several weeks. The result was renewed risk aversion. A secondary depressant was a weaker-than-expected German business climate in February reported by the Ifo […] More
Chinese Central Bank to the Rescue — Really No Big Deal
August 25, 2015
The People’s Bank of China reduced its one-year lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points each to 4.60% and 1.75% while also slicing its reserve requirement ratio to 18.0% from 18.5%. Stock markets rebounded on the news. Near 10:30 EDT, key U.S. stock market indices were up by 2.5-3%. In Europe, share prices gained […] More
Awaiting Janet Yellen’s Semi-Annual Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony
February 24, 2015
Day One of Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony on the economy and monetary policy begins at 10:00 before the Senate Banking Committee. On Wednesday, she will reprise the testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. The testimony comes amid rising Congressional hostility to an independent central bank. Indeed, a major question before the American people in […] More
Swiss National Bank Lights a Firestorm and India’s Central Bank Also Surprises
January 15, 2015
There’s been a whole lot of shaking going on in world financial markets overnight. Dollar/Swissie plunged 14.2%, and Swiss equities have slumped 9.5%. The trigger for these big moves was the Swiss National Bank’s abandonment of its 1.2000 franc per euro ceiling, which was imposed initially on September 6, 2011. The cost of intervention was […] More
Mixed Data, Muted Market Changes
November 25, 2014
U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter was revised unexpectedly higher by almost a half percentage point to 3.9%. The 2-quarter rise between 1Q and 3Q was the strongest in more than ten years. The core PCE deflator inflation rate of 1.5% remains a half percentage point below target. Growth was led by private domestic […] More
