GDP growth

First-Quarter GDP Growth

May 17, 2020

First-quarter national income accounts have now been reported for the United States, China, Euroland, Japan and Great Britain. In China, where the Covid-19 pandemic first surfaced, economic activity suffered more sharply than in the other four economies. Real GDP there plummeted 33.8% at an annualized rate compared to its 4Q19 level. That pummeling caused the […] More


March 8, 2011

This is the time of year when economic forecasters first begin to think about the following year and the month when the monthly poll by The Economist introduces projections for the year after the current one.  Such early estimates contain very useful information.  Here are some of the revealed insights. U.S. GDP is expected to […] More

Digging Out of the Great Recession

September 28, 2010

From their quarterly lows in the recent recession, real GDP by 2Q10 had recovered 4.8% in Japan, 3.4% in Canada, 3.0% in the United States, 2.0% in Great Britain and 1.9% in the euro area.  But compared to their prior peaks, only Canada among these economies had essentially filled the hole made during the downturn.  […] More

All Bets Off on U.S. Recovery If Equities Plunge

January 21, 2010

A very wide dispersion persists among U.S. growth projections.  Some analysts expect real GDP to expand more than 4.0% in the year between 3Q09 and 3Q10, and others have penciled in a return to recession.  The pessimists tend to stress the temporary nature of factors behind the impressive rebound of activity, namely a favorable turn […] More