dollar outlook

Dollar at a Crossroads

May 24, 2022

In contrast to the past year of methodical appreciation, one can conjure up vastly divergent dollar performances over the year ahead. From lows in May 2021 to highs earlier this month, the U.S. currency climbed about 17% in weighted terms, 23.7% against the Japanese yen, 18.5% versus the euro and 17.2% relative to sterling. Many […] More

Brief Dollar Outlook Update

September 28, 2021

The eleven-week hiatus since the previous currency market essay in this space partly reflects the summer season, when day-to-day market action tends to be less representative of underlying fundamentals. The length of time without a currency essay also was justified by a secular trend toward lessening dollar volatility, which had been a major theme highlighted […] More

Dollar Now and Where It Might Be Heading

July 15, 2021

By historical standards, the dollar’s trading ranges over the last twelve months have been atypically confined. Similar 52-week high-low spreads against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc respectively have been 8.5%, 8.8%, and 8.2%. Not surprisingly given those widths, the dollar has moved within an 8.1% band against the DXY weighted index. Presently the dollar […] More

The Dollar this Summer: Questions and Some Things to Know

June 2, 2021

Movements in the dollar between the U.S. Memorial Day and Labor Day holidays, which define the “summer” trading season, sometimes play differently than at other times of the year. As market participants take vacations, trading desks may lighten, lending an erratic element to the market’s pulse at times, particularly in the face of unexpected events.. […] More

U.S. Economic Fundamentals and the Dollar

February 11, 2021

The dollar is currently much closer to its 52-week lows than its highs over that period against the euro, yen, Swiss franc, Chinese yuan and on a trade-weighted basis. Depreciation has been very orderly overall. The decline has transpired in fits and starts, and cumulative losses are moderate compared to many historical periods of slide. […] More

Dollar in a Challenging Situation

January 7, 2021

The dollar depreciated much of the time last year, dropping from end-2019 to end-2020 by 9.0% against the Australian dollar, 8.2% versus the euro, 6.2% relative to the Chinese yuan and 5.0% against the Japanese yen. Those losses mask a well-bid first quarter that saw the U.S. currency attain its best trade-weighted value for the […] More

Dollar Outlook as Election Nears

October 12, 2020

2020 has been a difficult year for America’s brand of democracy. Amid doubts that democratic practices can be relied upon to forge policies in the best common interests of the citizenry or even whether the people still want sovereignty to be vested in the people, the dollar’s main basis of support lies in its centrality […] More

A Very Robust Dollar with Continuing Upside Potential

March 23, 2020

The dollar has thrived during the global coronavirus pandemic. In the past two weeks the U.S. currency has advanced between 5% and 10% against the euro, yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Turkish lira, Brazilian real, South Korean won and South African rand. It has climbed between 10% and 15% relative to the British […] More

Coronavirus Darkens Dollar Outlook

March 7, 2020

After simmering on low for two months, the Covid-19 outbreak slammed world financial markets to create back-to-back weekly volatility on a scale with few precedents over the past four decades. Stocks, long-term interest rates, commodity prices and foreign exchange were all sucked into the maelstrom. The DOW closed February 21st down just 0.4% over the […] More

Thoughts on How the Dollar Might Perform in 2020

January 13, 2020

Lessening Dollar Volatility: Closing quarterly quotes for the euro against the U.S. currency last year painted a tight shot group of $1.1217 in 1Q, $1.1373 at midyear, $1.0900 in the third quarter and $1.1219 at yearend. If one substitutes dollar/mark for EUR/USD for years prior to 1999, the 4.3% spread between the most disparate of […] More