Yearend Advent
December 31, 2025
New Year holiday celebrations began in many countries today. Equity markets, for instance, were closed in Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines. Aside from a 0.4% rise against the kiwi, the dollar barely moved overnight but is set to post its largest calendar year drop (about 9.5%) in eight years.
Bitcoin firmed 0.4% overnight but showcased the epitome of instability during 2025, ranging within a 68% wide corridor from an April low near $75,000 and a record peak of $126,211 in early October and posting a net drop of around 5% from its end-2024 level.
By comparison, precious metals like gold (up a bit more than 60% for the year) and even more so silver (+150% or so) experienced stellar performances in 2025, although each fell today on a wave of yearend profit-taking. The price of WTI oil recorded its largest drop since the Covid year of 2020 but rose a tad overnight.
Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose two basis points overnight in the United States but fell a similar amount in Great Britain. For the year so far, a 42-basis point drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield contrasts with rises among its counterparts amounting to nearly a full percentage point in Japan, half a percentage point in Germany, 20 basis points in Canada, and around three-eighths of a percentage point in both France and Australia.
The holiday blunted stock market activity overnight.
In China, where an extended closure is observed, purchasing managers surveys and current account figures were released early.
- China’s privately compiled manufacturing PMI index rose 0.2 points unexpectedly to a 2-month high of 50.1. While domestic orders perked up, exports stayed sluggish, and sentiment as firms looked to the near future stayed guarded.
- The NBS government-authorized Chinese PMI readings for December printed at 50.1 in manufacturing (a 9-month high), 50.2 in non-manufacturing (a 4-month high) and 50.7 overall (a 6-month high).
- China’s record third-quarter current account surplus was revised 1.5% wider to $198.7 billion. The year-to-date surplus of $493 billion was more than double the surplus accrued over the first three quarters of 2024 in spite of tariff chaos.
New U.S. jobless insurance claims last week of 199k fell below the psychological 200k threshold for only the second time in the past year but were likely distorted by the holidays. Their 4-week moving average of 218.75k has shown scant movement since early October.
South Korean consumer price inflation settled back 0.1 percentage point to a 3-month low of 2.3% in December. Such had dived from 6.3$ in July 2022 to a 45-month low of 1.3% by October 2024.
CPI inflation in Sri Lanka, which cratered from 67.4% in September 2022 to -4.2% last February, printed at 2.1% in each month of the fourth quarter.
Portuguese CPI inflation this month matched November’s 7-month low of 2.2%. Polish consumer price inflation edged down 0.1 percentage point to a 2-month low of 2.4% in December.
South Africa posted its largest trade surplus in 44 months during November (37.7 billion rand). The year-to-date surplus of ZAR 177 billion was 18% wider than a year earlier. In Turkey, the January-November trade deficit of $83 billion around 12.5% greater than a year earlier.
Copyright 2025, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: bitcoin and gold, Chinese purchasing manager surveys and current account, South Korean CPI, U.S. jobless insurance claims
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