Yearend
December 29, 2023
On this final business day of 2024, U.S. stock futures are flat, the dollar is mixed, and 10-year sovereign debt yields have risen. The dollar lost 0.9% and 0.5% overnight against the Swiss franc and Chinese yuan but climbed 0.6% versus the Australian dollar, 0.4% relative to the much beleaguered Turkish lira, and 0.3% against the loonie and kiwi. Lesser changes include a 0.1% uptick versus the Japanese yen, a 0.1% dollar downtick relative to the euro and no net change against sterling.
In overseas stock markets, share prices rose 1.6% in South Korea, 0.8% in Singapore, and 0.7% in China but closed down 0.3% in Australia, 0.2% in Japan and 0.4% in Indonesia. Share prices in Europe are up fractionally.
Ten-year sovereign bond yields climbed 8 basis points in Italy, 6 bps in France, 7 bps in Germany, 4 bps in the United States, 3 bps in Great Britain, and 2 bps in Japan on this final business day of the year.
The price of gold slid back 0.4%, while that of bitcoin rose by 0.5%.
On the data front, investors learned that China’s current account surplus had dived 55% to $62.6 billion in 3Q 2023 from $139.6 billion a year earlier. As a percent of GDP, such had previously widened to 2.2% in calendar 2022 from 1.8% in 2021 and a pre-Covid 0.2% in 2018.
Russian purchasing managers survey results from December were reported prior to the new years holiday break, whereas most other country results will not be released until after. Russia’s composite and service PMI indices moved further above 50 to four-month highs of 55.7 and 56.2, and the manufacturing PMI edged 0.1 point above the 80-month high of 54.5 that had been touched in August.
The British Nationwide monthly house price index posted a 1.8% year-on-year drop in December, marking the eleventh straight sub-zero result. In 2022, that key housing market indicator had crested at a 208-month peak of 14.3% in March.
South Korean consumer price inflation fell to a 5-month low of 3.2% this month. A previous 27-month trough of 2.3% had been touched in July. Inflation is currently only half as high as the 21st century peak of 6.3% in July 2022.
Spanish CPI inflation of 3.1% this month was at a 4-month low. Such had declined previously from a 38-year high of 10.8% in July 2022 to a 27-month low of 1.9% eleven months later.
CPI inflation in Sri Lanka of 4.0% and in Slovenia of 4.2% in December constitute 4- and 26-month lows. Sri Lanka experienced one of the world’s steepest inflation implosions from a record high of 69.8% in September 2022 to 1.3% a year later.
Austrian producer prices recorded their fifth straight year-on-year decline in December, but the 2.8% drop was less than November’s 3.9% decline.
Domestic producer prices in Singapore during November fell 2.8% from a year earlier, and import prices posted a 1.0% decline.
Vietnamese GDP grew 6.7% between the final quarters of 2022 and 2023, the fastest pace in five quarters, but growth in 2023 as a whole was a lesser 5.1%.
The KOF leading Swiss economy index ended 2023 at an 8-month high, and Brazil’s 7.5% jobless rate was its lowest in eight years and down from 8.8% as recently as March.
Copyright 2023, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Chinese current account, Russian purchasing managers surveys
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