Deeper Analysis
July 2022 in Figures
July 30, 2022
July was another active month for central banks in the face of high inflation, and investors almost assuredly moved wealth back into riskier assets to a greater extent than monetary officials would like to have seen. June ended just two weeks after the Federal Reserve’s greater-than-predicted initial 75-basis point interest rate hike, and by end-July […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: July 30 – August 5, 2022
July 29, 2022
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in the Czech Republic, Australia, U.K., Brazil, India and Georgia. Bank of England Governor Bailey and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speak publicly. The quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Band of England Monetary Policy Report will be published. Monday Holidays: Bank holiday in Australia, Civic Holiday in Canada, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
End-Month Data Storm
July 29, 2022
The last business day of each month tends to experience a load of economic data reports, and July has been no exception. A market misconception caused by a policy dynamic fraught with uncertainty that translates into lessening transparency about future policy has complicated the task of reducing inflation. I personally did not think that Powell’s […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. GDP Data Deconstructed
July 28, 2022
As some had speculated, the first estimate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter posted a second consecutive quarter-on-quarter decline, this time of 0.9% after a 1.6% slide in the first quarter. If this had been accompanied by falling employment, which emphatically has not been the case, it would be a strong signal that the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.S. 2Q GDP Report Heads Crowded Data Release Schedule Today
July 28, 2022
U.S. real GDP fell 1.6% on quarter at an annualized rated during the winter period and is expected to rebound only about 0.5% in 2Q. The data will be released shortly. Meantime, the dollar strengthened overnight, especially in the past couple of hours. From Wednesday closing levels, the dollar is up 0.8% against the euro, […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Statement: No Surprises…. Decision on Size of September Meeting Not Made
July 27, 2022
The size of the interest rate hike, 75 basis points, matched expectations and the previous increase in mid-June. More increase in the future “will be appropriate.” Quantitative tightening that reduces the size of the Fed balance sheet by via not fully reinvesting matured principal of maturing assets, will proceed on the scheduled outlined in May. […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
July 27, 2022
The fourth straight hike in the federal funds target is expected to match the previous increase of 75 basis points on June 15 and bring the cumulative rise this year to 225 basis points. With the new target range ceiling of 2.5%, policy has returned to what officials generally consider a neutral stance, that is […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Slightly Softer Dollar but Higher Share Prices Ahead of FOMC Announcement
July 27, 2022
The FOMC statement due at 18:00 GMT today will be followed by Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. Fed forecasts are not being updated at this meeting, and officials are widely expected to raised the fed funds target by 75 more basis points to 2.25-2.50%, which would more or less align such with what is […] More
Larry's Blog
Yankee-Mets Preview of Tonight’s Subway Series Opener and a Peak Ahead to October Play
July 26, 2022
The Houston Astros and N.Y. Metropolitans have replaced the Boston Red Sox as the opponents that generate the most pregame hype for the N.Y. Yankees. Tonight’s match-up between the Yanks and Mets kicks off what may prove to be the most memorable combined year for those two teams since 2000 when they met in the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Tough Day for the Euro
July 26, 2022
The dollar strengthened 0.8% overnight against the euro and also rose by 0.5% versus the kiwi and sterling as well as 0.2% relative to the Australian dollar, peso, Turkish lira, and Canadian dollar. The Swiss franc only dipped 0.1% against the dollar, and the yen held unchanged. Today’s forex market action reflects concerns about Europe […] More
