New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Awaiting U.S. Data and Wednesday’s FOMC Developments
March 16, 2021
Data releases in Asia and Europe were light this Tuesday, but U.S. retail sales, industrial production, import prices, capacity utilization, and NAHB housing index are due shortly. Today is also the first of a two-day FOMC policy review that will include the quarterly update of macroeconomic and interest rate forecasts as well as Chairman Powell’s […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Stays Firm but Dollar and Equity Moves Have Been Muted
March 15, 2021
The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield is unchanged on balance at 1.62% after touching a 13-month high of 1.635%. The price of a Bitcoin moved briefly above $60,000 but also has settled back. The dollar has risen 0.5% against the Aussie dollar and 0.3% relative to the euro but only 0.1% against the yen, sterling, and […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: March 13 – 19, 2021
March 12, 2021
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed next week at the Federal Reserve and in Japan, the U.K., Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Norway, Russia and Taiwan. The FOMC will be updating its forecasts at next week’s meeting; updates are done quarterly. The Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan are scheduled to publish minutes of […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Large Rise in Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields
March 12, 2021
Yesterday was a momentous day for the Biden Administration. He signed the nearly $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan on the one-year anniversary of last year’s Covid lockdown and then gave his first prime time address to the nation, setting a goals for vaccinations and a start of permissible family gatherings. Overnight, the trade-weighted dollar climbed […] More
Larry's Blog
American Rescue Plan Embodies and Is Likely to Create New Paradigms
March 11, 2021
At 8:00 tonight, U.S. President Biden will deliver his first prime time speech. While the timing of his talk coincides with the anniversary of the imposition of social distancing restrictions to counter the Covid-19 crisis, the address provides an opportune time to justify the American Rescue Plan, which sacrificed the initial desire that the law […] More
Central Bank Watch
ECB Maintains Interest Rate Levels and Forward Guidance and Announces Near-Term increase in Pace of PEPP Bond Buying
March 11, 2021
This week’s monetary policy review by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank left the interest rate structure unchanged, with a zero percent refinancing rate flanked by a negative 0.5% overnight deposit rate and a +0.25% rate on the marginal lending facility. Euroland has been less successful than many other places rolling out Covid-19 […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Financial Markets Continuing to React to American Rescue Plan
March 11, 2021
The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan will be signed by President Biden tomorrow. This is an aggressive relief effort aimed predominantly at the middle class and includes another round of direct payments to households, an extension of unemployment benefits, and — something excluded from the CARES act — support for state and local governments. In […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Canada Reaffirms Existing Monetary Policy Settings
March 10, 2021
When the pandemic struck a year ago, the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council compressed the reduction of its overnight policy rate into a trio of 50-basis point cuts all in March to the record low of 0.25%, which it considers an “effective lower bound.” Additional stimulus has been provided by a program of asset purchases. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Somewhat Firmer Dollar as Long-Term U.S. Treasury Yields Rise Anew
March 10, 2021
The dollar is trading 0.2% higher on a trade-weighted basis and versus the yen and Australian dollar. The greenback also shows a gain of 0.3% relative to the Swiss franc and 0.1% against the euro, loonie, kiwi, and yuan. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, and Japan’s Nikkei closed unchanged. Continental European stocks are higher, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Here Comes the Sun: Less Fear and More Hope
March 9, 2021
Investors are believing more and more that 2021 is gonna be a good year at least for those fortunate enough to have survived 2020. The OECD revised up projected growth this year rather substantially. The mistake of 2009 when the U.S. Congress opened fiscal spigots insufficiently isn’t being repeated. The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan […] More
