Big 6.3-Point Jump Last Month in U.S.-Minus-Ezone Services Differential
October 5, 2016
The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index leaped 5.7 points to 57.1 in September, an eleven-month high. Euroland’s services PMI, in contrast, fell 0.6 points to a 21-month low. The spread between those two September readings of +4.9 points was 6.3 points greater than August’s negative differential of -1.1.
There is one caveat, however. Markit Economics, which runs the PMI surveys in the euro area, also compiles a U.S. services purchasing managers index, and such improved 1.3 points to 52.3 in September, a considerably smaller move than the Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index.
The ISM report showed broad strength, with business activity jumping 8.5 points to 60.3, new business climbing 8.6 points to 60.0, the jobs diffusion index rising 6.5 points, and prices increasing by 2.2 points. Among reporting euro area members, the indices for Ireland and Germany dropped to 39-month lows, and the Italian and Spanish readings were at 4- and 2-month lows. France was the only bright spot with a reading of 53.3, 2.4 points better than Germany’s level.
The last column in the table below adds the manufacturing and service-sector PMI spreads. At +3.8, such is 7.5 points more U.S.-advantageous than in August and the highest since June.
| PMIs | U.S. | Ezone | U.S. | Ezone | Sum of | ||
| Services | Services | Spread | Mf’g | Mf’g | Spread | Spreads | |
| Jan 2012 | 56.8 | 50.4 | +6.4 | 54.1 | 48.8 | +5.3 | +10.9 |
| Feb | 56.1 | 48.8 | +7.3 | 51.9 | 49.0 | +2.9 | +10.2 |
| March | 55.0 | 49.2 | +5.8 | 53.3 | 47.7 | +5.6 | +11.4 |
| April | 53.7 | 46.9 | +6.8 | 54.1 | 45.9 | +8.2 | +15.0 |
| May | 54.1 | 46.7 | +7.4 | 52.5 | 45.1 | +7.4 | +14.8 |
| June | 52.7 | 47.1 | +5.6 | 50.2 | 45.1 | +5.1 | +10.7 |
| July | 52.9 | 47.9 | +5.0 | 50.5 | 44.0 | +6.5 | +11.5 |
| August | 54.3 | 47.2 | +7.1 | 50.7 | 45.1 | +5.6 | +12.7 |
| Sept | 55.2 | 46.1 | +9.1 | 51.6 | 46.1 | +5.5 | +14.6 |
| October | 54.8 | 46.0 | +8.8 | 51.7 | 45.4 | +6.3 | +15.1 |
| November | 54.8 | 46.7 | +8.1 | 49.9 | 46.2 | +3.7 | +11.8 |
| December | 55.7 | 47.8 | +7.9 | 50.2 | 46.1 | +4.1 | +12.0 |
| Jan 2013 | 55.2 | 48.6 | +6.6 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +11.8 |
| February | 54.8 | 47.9 | +8.1 | 53.1 | 47.9 | +5.2 | +13.3 |
| March | 54.5 | 46.4 | +8.1 | 51.5 | 46.8 | +4.7 | +12.8 |
| April | 53.8 | 47.0 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 46.7 | +3.3 | +10.1 |
| May | 54.0 | 47.2 | +6.8 | 50.0 | 48.3 | +1.7 | +8.5 |
| June | 53.4 | 48.3 | +5.1 | 52.5 | 48.8 | +3.7 | +8.8 |
| July | 55.9 | 49.8 | +6.1 | 54.9 | 50.3 | +4.6 | +10.7 |
| August | 57.9 | 50.7 | +7.2 | 56.3 | 51.4 | +4.9 | +12.1 |
| Sept | 54.5 | 52.2 | +2.3 | 56.0 | 51.1 | +4.9 | +7.2 |
| October | 55.1 | 51.6 | +3.5 | 56.6 | 51.3 | +5.3 | +8.8 |
| November | 54.1 | 51.2 | +2.9 | 57.0 | 51.6 | +5.4 | +8.3 |
| December | 53.0 | 51.0 | +2.0 | 56.5 | 52.7 | +3.8 | +5.8 |
| Jan 2014 | 54.0 | 51.6 | +2.4 | 51.3 | 54.0 | -2.7 | -0.3 |
| February | 52.5 | 52.6 | -0.1 | 54.3 | 53.2 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| March | 53.7 | 52.1 | +1.6 | 54.4 | 53.0 | +1.4 | +3.0 |
| April | 55.3 | 53.1 | +2.2 | 55.3 | 53.4 | +1.9 | +4.1 |
| May | 56.1 | 53.2 | +2.9 | 55.6 | 52.2 | +3.4 | +6.3 |
| June | 56.3 | 52.8 | +3.5 | 55.7 | 51.8 | +3.9 | +7.4 |
| July | 57.9 | 54.2 | +3.7 | 56.4 | 51.8 | +4.6 | +8.3 |
| August | 58.6 | 53.1 | +5.5 | 58.1 | 50.7 | +7.4 | +12.9 |
| Sept | 58.1 | 52.4 | +5.7 | 56.1 | 50.3 | +5.8 | +11.5 |
| October | 56.9 | 52.1 | +4.8 | 57.9 | 50.6 | +7.3 | +12.1 |
| November | 58.8 | 51.1 | +7.7 | 57.6 | 50.1 | +7.5 | +15.2 |
| December | 56.5 | 51.6 | +4.9 | 55.1 | 50.6 | +4.5 | +9.4 |
| Jan 2015 | 56.7 | 52.7 | +4.0 | 53.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | +6.5 |
| February | 57.1 | 53.7 | +4.4 | 52.3 | 51.0 | +1.3 | +5.7 |
| March | 56.9 | 54.2 | +2.7 | 52.3 | 52.2 | +0.1 | +2.8 |
| April | 57.5 | 54.1 | +3.4 | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | +3.0 |
| May | 55.9 | 53.8 | +2.1 | 53.1 | 52.2 | +0.9 | +3.0 |
| June | 56.2 | 54.4 | +1.8 | 53.1 | 53.1 | 0.0 | +1.8 |
| July | 59.6 | 54.0 | +5.6 | 51.9 | 52.4 | -0.5 | +5.1 |
| August
Sept October |
58.3
56.7 58.3 |
54.4
53.7 54.1 |
+3.9
+3.0 +4.2 |
51.0
50.0 49.4 |
52.3
52.0 52.3 |
-1.3
-2.0 -2.9 |
+2.6
+1.0 +1.3 |
| November
December Jan 2016 February March April May June July August September |
56.6
55.8 53.5 53.4 54.5 55.7 52.9 56.5 55.5 51.4 57.1 |
54.2
54.2 53.6 53.3 53.1 53.1 53.3 52.8 52.9 52.8 52.6 |
+1.7
+1.6 -0.1 +0.1 +1.4 +2.6 -0.4 +3.7 +2.6 -1.4 +4.9 |
48.4
48.0 48.2 49.5 51.8 50.8 51.3 53.2 52.6 49.4 51.5 |
52.8
53.2 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 |
-4.4
-5.2 -4.1 -1.7 +0.2 -0.9 -0.2 +0.4 +0.6 -2.3 -1.1 |
-2.7
-3.6 -4.2 -1.6 +1.6 +1.7 -0.6 +4.1 +3.2 -3.7 +3.8 |
Copyright 2016, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: U.S. and eurozone PMIs
ShareThis
