Deeper Analysis
June and the Second Quarter in Figures
June 30, 2016
June and the second quarter were a volatile time in financial markets with mixed results, a few surprises and some odd juxtapositions. The table below shows end-June levels and their comparisons to end-May and end-second quarter levels. A unifying theme in both the last month and the spring quarter involved deep declines in sovereign debt […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Romania Keeps 1.75% Interest Rate but Flags Risks
June 30, 2016
Romania’s policy interest rate has been 1.75% since a 25-basis point cut in May 2015 that culminated 350 basis points of reduction over the prior two years. A statement released after the central bank Board’s latest policy review highlighted new downside risks to be monitored. “Banca Naţională a României the external environment is marked by […] More
Central Bank Watch
Czech National Bank Policy Left the Same
June 30, 2016
The decision to leave Czech monetary policy settings had been expected. The two-week repo rate has been 0.05%, effectively zero in functionality terms, since November 2012, and an asymmetric intervention-enforced foreign exchange cap on koruna strength at 27 per dollar was imposed as an extra tool one year later. Officials released this brief statement. Copyright […] More
Central Bank Watch
Taiwanese Monetary Policy Eased Further in the face of Weak Chinese Demand and Brexit Concern
June 30, 2016
Policymakers at the Central Bank of the Republic of China unanimously cut Taiwan’s discount rate to 1.375% from 1.50%. Reductions of 12.5 basis points had also been agreed upon at the three prior quarterly policy reviews. A statement released today introduces a fresh concern: In last week’s referendum, the United Kingdom voted to leave the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Deluge of Politics and Economics at Midyear
June 30, 2016
Today’s Brexit bombshell is that the Leave movement’s leader, Boris Johnson, pulled out of the running to be Britain’s next prime minister and the person to decide when to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which guides the unprecedented countdown for exiting the European Union. Johnson’s decision presumably will further delay what happens from […] More
Deeper Analysis
Comment on U.S. GDP Growth and Trade Protectionism
June 29, 2016
The second and final revision of U.S. growth between the final quarter of 2015 and the first one of 2016, released yesterday, was revised upward by 0.3 percentage points to 1.1% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (saar). The initial growth estimate reported in late April had been 0.5% saar. Commentary surrounding the report […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Tuesday’s Market Rebound Extended
June 29, 2016
European share prices have risen an additional 2.8% in Spain, 2.5% in France, 2.4% in the U.K. and Italy, 2.2% in Switzerland, 1.9% in Germany and 1.2% in Greece. Sterling is trading currently at $1.3421, up another 0.6% and 2.3% above the 30-year low seen on Monday. The dollar has also settled back 1.0% against […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Post-Brexit Market Moves Reversed Slightly Ahead of EU Council Meeting
June 28, 2016
The dollar settled back 0.9% against sterling and the kiwi, 0.8% versus the Australian currency, 0.7% relative to the loonie, and 0.6% vis-a-vis the euro and yen. The yuan and Swiss are mostly unchanged. Emerging market currencies did better today as well. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rebounded six basis points in the U.K., 3 basis […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Bad Time for a Market Shock
June 27, 2016
The British referendum result delivered bad news and not merely because it defied street expectations or the widely held view of investors, economists, world leaders, and central bankers that the British, European and world economies would be poorly served by a verdict to take Britain out of the EU. No time is good for bad news, but […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Israel’s Monetary Policy to “Remain Accommodative for a Considerable Time”
June 27, 2016
Israel’s central bank rate has been at 0.1% since a 15-basis point cut in February 2015, which was preceded by 75 bps worth of easing in each of 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. Nonetheless, current inflation of 0.5% is not expected to rise into target until around the middle of next year. Projected Israeli growth […] More
