Dollar Little Moved by U.S. and Other Data

September 15, 2015

The dollar shows no net overnight movement against the euro, yuan and loonie, a rise of 0.3 against the Aussie dollar and sterling, a gain of 0.2% and 0.1% versus the kiwi and Swissie, and a drop of 0.2% relative to the yen.

Chinese share prices slumped 3.5%, and there were stock market declines of 1.5% in Australia, 1.0% in Indonesia and Singapore, and 0.6% in India and Taiwan.  Equities are marginally higher in the United States and firmed 0.4% in Japan.  Advances in Europe so far total 0.8% in Italy, 0.7% in Switzerland, 0.6% in France and Spain, 0.5% in the U.K., and 0.2% in Germany.

West Texas Intermediate oil rebounded 1.0% but remains very low at $44.43 per barrel.  Comex gold lost 0.3% to $1,105.96 per ounce.

Ten-year Treasury, JGB, and British gilt yields are up two basis points.  The 10-year German bund is steady.

The U.S. retail sales report for August was on balance a bit better than forecast, but a 0.4% drop in industrial production exceeded expectations.  Output has only risen once in the last six reported months and was a mere 0.9% greater than a year earlier.  Capacity usage fell 0.4 percentage points to a soft 77.6%.

The Empire State manufacturing index was again very weak, printing at -14.67 in September after -14.92 in August.  By far those are the lowest readings of 2015.

Reserve Bank of Australia minutes read very dovishly.  The Aussie dollar was pressured by the revealed preference for more depreciation and a prediction of sub-normal growth, in-target inflation, and an absence of wage strains.

The Bank of Japan left its loose monetary policy settings unchanged, downgraded its assessment of exports and industrial production, but stuck to a baseline forecast of moderate economic recovery and a resumption of inflation’s rise toward the desirable goal of 2.0% on a stable basis.  There was little hint of more stimulus being approved when the October full economic review is prepared.

Jobs growth in the eurozone accelerated last quarter to 0.3% versus 1Q but remained at 0.8% on an year over year basis for a fourth straight time.

Euroland’s EUR 22.4 billion trade surplus in July was larger than any of the first-half monthly surpluses, even though exports fell 0.7% on month.  The unadjusted EUR 146.5 billion surplus in January-July was 51% wider than a year earlier. 

New car registrations in the 25-member European Union were 11.2% greater last month than in August 2014.

A lot of British price data were reported.

  • CPI inflation of zero overall and 1.0% on core items was lower in August than July’s levels.
  • Producer output price deflation lengthened to -1.8% in August from -1.6% in July.  Core PPI-O of 0.1% was less than assumed.
  • Producer input prices tumbled 13.8% in the year through August.
  • The DCLG house price index rose 0.8% on month in July but produced a 5.2% on-year change, a half-percentage point less than in the year to June.

Britain’s indices of leading economic indicators (-0.3%) and coincident economic indicators (+0.1%) were weak in July.

French consumer price inflation slowed to zero in August from 0.2% in July.

Canadian existing home sales rose 0.3% in August, reversing a 0.4% drop the month before.

Australian motor vehicle sales dropped 1.6% in August, matching July’s decline and cutting their 12-month increase to 2.1%.

Chile’s latest central bank policy decision will be announced today.

Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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