Dollar Little Moved by U.S. and Other Data
September 15, 2015
The dollar shows no net overnight movement against the euro, yuan and loonie, a rise of 0.3 against the Aussie dollar and sterling, a gain of 0.2% and 0.1% versus the kiwi and Swissie, and a drop of 0.2% relative to the yen.
Chinese share prices slumped 3.5%, and there were stock market declines of 1.5% in Australia, 1.0% in Indonesia and Singapore, and 0.6% in India and Taiwan. Equities are marginally higher in the United States and firmed 0.4% in Japan. Advances in Europe so far total 0.8% in Italy, 0.7% in Switzerland, 0.6% in France and Spain, 0.5% in the U.K., and 0.2% in Germany.
West Texas Intermediate oil rebounded 1.0% but remains very low at $44.43 per barrel. Comex gold lost 0.3% to $1,105.96 per ounce.
Ten-year Treasury, JGB, and British gilt yields are up two basis points. The 10-year German bund is steady.
The U.S. retail sales report for August was on balance a bit better than forecast, but a 0.4% drop in industrial production exceeded expectations. Output has only risen once in the last six reported months and was a mere 0.9% greater than a year earlier. Capacity usage fell 0.4 percentage points to a soft 77.6%.
The Empire State manufacturing index was again very weak, printing at -14.67 in September after -14.92 in August. By far those are the lowest readings of 2015.
Reserve Bank of Australia minutes read very dovishly. The Aussie dollar was pressured by the revealed preference for more depreciation and a prediction of sub-normal growth, in-target inflation, and an absence of wage strains.
The Bank of Japan left its loose monetary policy settings unchanged, downgraded its assessment of exports and industrial production, but stuck to a baseline forecast of moderate economic recovery and a resumption of inflation’s rise toward the desirable goal of 2.0% on a stable basis. There was little hint of more stimulus being approved when the October full economic review is prepared.
Jobs growth in the eurozone accelerated last quarter to 0.3% versus 1Q but remained at 0.8% on an year over year basis for a fourth straight time.
Euroland’s EUR 22.4 billion trade surplus in July was larger than any of the first-half monthly surpluses, even though exports fell 0.7% on month. The unadjusted EUR 146.5 billion surplus in January-July was 51% wider than a year earlier.
New car registrations in the 25-member European Union were 11.2% greater last month than in August 2014.
A lot of British price data were reported.
- CPI inflation of zero overall and 1.0% on core items was lower in August than July’s levels.
- Producer output price deflation lengthened to -1.8% in August from -1.6% in July. Core PPI-O of 0.1% was less than assumed.
- Producer input prices tumbled 13.8% in the year through August.
- The DCLG house price index rose 0.8% on month in July but produced a 5.2% on-year change, a half-percentage point less than in the year to June.
Britain’s indices of leading economic indicators (-0.3%) and coincident economic indicators (+0.1%) were weak in July.
French consumer price inflation slowed to zero in August from 0.2% in July.
Canadian existing home sales rose 0.3% in August, reversing a 0.4% drop the month before.
Australian motor vehicle sales dropped 1.6% in August, matching July’s decline and cutting their 12-month increase to 2.1%.
Chile’s latest central bank policy decision will be announced today.
Copyright 2015, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: BOJ, Euroland trade balance, U.S. retail sales and industrial output
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