Awaiting U.S. September Jobs Figures

October 5, 2012

The dollar is unchanged against the yen, Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan and sterling.  It has edged 0.1% firmer relative to the euro and Swiss franc and is down 0.3% and 0.1% against the New Zealand and Australian dollars.

Share prices rose 0.9% in Australia and Indonesia, 0.7% in Singapore, 0.6% in New Zealand, 0.4% in Japan, and 0.5% in Hong Kong but fell by 0.6% in India.  China will reopen next week after being closed all this week for a National Holiday.  Equities are higher in Europe, having gained 1.1% in Italy, 0.9% in France, 0.6% in Spain and Germany and 0.5% in Britain.

Ten-year German bund and British gilt yields rose by 0.6%.  The 10-year JGB has edged one basis point higher.

Oil prices fell 1.1% to 90.71 per barrel, and gold prices are off 0.3% at $1791.10 per ounce.

The Bank of Japan Policy Board did not change its policy settings after meeting yesterday and today.  A second meeting late this month had been consider a much likelier opportunity for expanding quantitative easing.  The overnight money target is 0-0.1%, and the asset and credit facilities total JPY 80 trillion for now.  Officials downgraded the economic assessment and foresee sub-target inflation continuing for the time being.

Bank Rossii left its refinancing rate at 8.25%.  Russian inflation exceeds target.

German industrial orders fell almost three times further than forecast in August, dropping 1.3% on month and 4.8% on year.  Weakness was led by a 6.8% plunge in domestic orders for capital goods.  Total orders were 1.2% lower in July-August than the 2Q level, with drops of 2.4% in domestic demand but just 0.2% in foreign orders.

In August, Spanish industrial production was 3.2% lower than a year earlier.  Norwegian industrial output rose 0.3% on month and 1.9% on year.  Hungarian output fell 0.8% from August 2011, and Danish production was 2.8% weaker than a year before.  Irish industrial production fell 0.7% on month and posted a 12-month increase of just 0.2%.  Czech retail sales edged 0.1% higher on month but was 0.8% lower on year.

Euroland GDP contracted 0.1% in the second quarter.  That was the fifth consecutive quarter in which economic growth did no better than climb 0.1%.

Swiss reserves, up CHF 10.9 billion to CHF 429.3 billion, grew much more slowly in September.  Lessening Ezone financial strains have alleviated the Swiss National Bank’s need for currency market intervention in defense of its Swiss franc policy.

Japanese reserves increased $3.758 billion last month and by $6.45 billion in the third quarter.  The Bank of Japan’s policy statement voiced concern about the dampening impact of persistent yen strength on the economy.

An on-year plunge of 10% in Japanese customs clearance exports saw the trade balance swing to a JPY 515 billion deficit in the first twenty days of September from a surplus of JPY 66 billion a year earlier.  Japan’s index of leading economic indicators recovered to 93.6 in August after readings of 93.0 in July and 94.1 in June.  The Coincident index also printed at 63.6, down marginally from 93.8 in July.

Filipino consumer price inflation slowed to 3.6% last month from 3.8% in August.  Producer prices in August rose 0.4% on month but were 0.8% lower on year.  In Taiwan, CPI and PPI inflation respectively stood at +3.0% and minus 2.2%.

The U.S. Treasury Department’s September labor force survey results will be released at 12:30 GMT.  Economists had predicted a 115K rise in non-farm payroll jobs, but whisper numbers are closer to 200K heading into the release.  The August jobless rate of 8.1% is unlikely to have dropped further.  The 23 million jobless worker total quoted by Governor Romney in Wednesday’s debate is a broad measure that includes part-time workers that prefer full-time positions and discouraged workers who recently stopped looking for jobs.

Canada also reports labor statistics today, as well as building permits.

Copyright 2012, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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