Waiting to See What Mr. Draghi Announces

August 2, 2012

All eyes are on the ECB press conference, which starts at 12:30 GMT.

The dollar has slipped by 0.6% against the kiwi, 0.5% versus the Swissie and Aussie dollar, 0.4% relative to the euro, 0.3% against the yen, 0.2% versus the loonie and 0.1% against sterling.  The Chinese yuan held steady overnight.

After dropping in Asia, share prices in Europe are stronger ahead of the ECB decision  Stocks fell by 1.0% in China, 0.7% in Hong Kong, 0.6% in South Korea, and 0.5% in Singapore.  Not every market was down.  Equities climbed 1.0% in New Zealand, 0.2% in Australia, and 0.1% in Japan.  In Europe, share prices have gained 0.9% in Spain, 0.6% in France and Germany, and 0.5% in Britain.

Ten-year German bund and British gilt yields edged a basis point lower.  The Japanese JGB is unchanged.

Oil prices rose 0.4% to $89.29 per barrel, while gold is steady at $1607.50 per ounce.

Romania’s central bank left its key interest rate steady at 5.25%.  The most recent change was a cut of 25 basis points in March.

Central bank decisions are due also from the Czech National Bank and the Bank of England.

Australian retail sales increased 1.0% in June and were 4.1% higher than a year earlier.  Those results beat expectations.  Sales climbed 1.4% last quarter.

Australia recorded a A$ 9 million trade surplus in June, the first surplus of the year, following a A$ 313 million deficit in May. 

Commodity prices in New Zealand slid 0.5% in July, their fifth drop in a row.

Japan’s monetary base grew at a faster on-year pace of 8.6% last month versus 2.6% in the second quarter.  Japanese stock and bond transactions generated a tiny JPY 20 billion net inflow last week versus a JPY 203 billion outflow in the week of July 21.

Britain’s construction PMI moved slightly over the 50 no-change threshold to 50.9 in July from 48.2 in June but remained well down from May’s 54.4 reading.

The Swiss manufacturing purchasing managers index scored a 48.6 in July after 48.1 in June and 45.4 in May.  There’s been much talk lately about the massive Swiss intake of foreign exchange reserves as monetary officials capped the franc’s strength.  Swiss retail sales volume increased 0.3% in June and by a greater-than-expected 3.7% on year.

Euro area producer prices fell sequentially 0.5% for the second straight month in June and were only 1.8% higher than a year earlier.  The on-year pace has more than halved from 3.9% last January.  PPI inflation was just 0.4% annualized last quarter.

Spain auctioned 2-, 4-, and 10-year paper with mixed results in terms of the interest yield.

Romanian producer prices slid 0.2% in June and to a 12-month increase of 5.8% from 6.7% in the year to May.  Romanian retail sales fell 1.1% in June but were 4.1% greater in the first half of 2012 than a year before.

Retail sales in Hong Kong rose 8.5% in volume terms in the year to June.

Norwegian unemployment averaged 3.0% last quarter.  Spanish unemployment fell by 27.8K workers in July, less than the 98.9K decline in June.

S&P retained Germany’s AAA credit rating.  The outlook is considered stable.

Scheduled U.S. data today feature the New York ISM (NAPM) index, factory orders, and weekly jobless claims.

Copyright 2012, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

Tags: , , ,


Comments are closed.