Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
April 20, 2012
Next week’s calendar is crowded with central bank meetings at the Fed (including a Bernanke press conference), Bank of Japan (and the release of new macroeconomic forecasts), Megyar Nemzeti Bank, Bank of Mexico, and Bank of Israel. The first estimates of GDP growth arrive for Britain and the United States. Preliminary purchasing manager survey results […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
What an Absence of High Inflation Means for Currencies
April 20, 2012
Economists and investors see different primary economic threats. In the marketplace, a high level of fiscal deficit phobia continues. The fear is that fiscal excess accommodated by low central bank interest rates will produce accelerating inflation. Elevated commodity prices may constitute the foothills of that trend, and the pessimists also note that many emerging economies […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Watching G20 Talks and French Election
April 20, 2012
Finance ministers and central bank leaders from the Group of Twenty meeting in Washington are talking mostly about the euro debt crisis. The first round of French Presidential elections on Sunday is expected to set up a run-off contest on May 6 between the incumbent center-right Sarkozy and the Socialist candidate, Francois Hollande. The term […] More
Deeper Analysis
Growth Outlook
April 19, 2012
Upwardly revised IMF forecasts released on Tuesday exerted greater influence on investor risk aversion than many recent hard data releases that were more disappointing than forecast. Also, the modifications from previous forecasts released in January reversed only a fraction of the downward revisions embodied in those January estimates from ones made and released in September […] More
Central Bank Watch
No Change This Time in 4.0% Filipino Repo Rate
April 19, 2012
Monetary Board members at Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas had eased key interest rates at their prior two meetings on January 19 and March 1 but elected today to leave unchanged the 4.0% overnight repo rate and 6.0% overnight reverse repo rate as well as reserve requirement ratios. Authorities next meet June 14. The baseline inflation […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Stocks Somewhat Higher in Europe
April 19, 2012
Risk aversion continues to swing daily. Today the mood is more hopeful because Spain’s government managed to sell marginally more 2- and 10-year debt than planned although at higher yields. The Paris Cac has risen 0.9%, and the German Dax and British Ftse are 0.6% higher. Share prices had been mixed in the Pacific Rim, […] More
Central Bank Watch
Another 75-Basis Point Cut of the Brazilian Selic Rate
April 18, 2012
COPOM, the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of Brazil, authorized a sixth reduction of the Selic interest rate since last August 31. The first four moves were 50 basis points in size from a peak of 12.5%. This month’s cut, like that made at the March 8 meeting, was 75 bps in size. The […] More
Central Bank Watch
No Changes this Time in Turkish Monetary Policy Settings
April 18, 2012
Officials at the Reserve Bank of the Republic of Turkey retained levels of 5.75% in the 7-day repo rate, which is the key policy rate, 5.0% in the overnight borrowing rate, and 11.5% in the overnight lending rate. The last changes in the 1-week repo rate and the overnight borrowing rate were made last August […] More
Central Bank Watch
Swedish Riksbank Signals Unchanged Interest Rate for Next 12 Months
April 18, 2012
The Executive Board of the Swedish Riksbank left its repo rate at 1.5% and did not change its guidance of future policy, either. According to a statement from officials, the repo rate is likely to be unchanged at 1.5% through 1Q13 and then rise about 75 bps during the year to 1Q14 and by a […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Eye on Central Banks and Spanish Banking System
April 18, 2012
The dollar advanced 0.7% against the yen, 0.4% versus the Swiss franc, and 0.3% relative to the euro. The greenback is unchanged against the yuan and loonie, 0.1% higher versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars, and down 0.3% against the yen. Fresh worries about Spanish banks followed news from the Bank of Spain that […] More
